We will probably know Tuesday evening if Sup. Joel Engardio keeps his seat

Polls open at 7am tomorrow in District Four, where Sup. Joel Engardio is facing a recall, but many of the ballots have already been cast, by mail. The Department of Elections will release the first results at about 8:45 pm, at sfelections.org.

The first round of results will be the ballots that were mailed in over the past few weeks, and have already been counted (or will be counted tomorrow before the polls close). Every hour or so after that, the department will post more results.

The reality is that we will probably know the outcome by the time the first results drop. The majority of the people who are going to vote have already voted; Election Day turnout will be a small fraction of the total. If, as some polls suggest, at least 55 percent of D4 voters (and by some estimates, as many as 60 percent of those who will bother to cast a ballot) want to see Engardio removed, that will show up in the first drop.

If Engardio is behind by ten points—55 to 45—it’s going to be over. There’s no way Election Day votes are going to change that.

It could be a lot closer, and we could be looking at days before the final count, but by all appearances, Engardio is in serious trouble.

The next step is going to be fascinating. The Department of Elections must certify the vote by Oct. 16, and if he is recalled, Engardio must vacate his office immediately. If the DOE finalizes and certifies the results earlier, he will have to vacate earlier.

Or, if the outcome looks clear, Engardio could accept that he won’t win and resign shortly after Election Day.

All of this will be happening just as the supes will be starting to discuss the profound changes to the West Side that are part of Mayor Daniel Lurie’s new zoning plan. The supervisor from D4 could key to what might be a close vote.

If Engardio is still on the board when that vote comes (because he won the recall of because the vote hasn’t been certified) he’s clearly on Lurie’s side.

If Lurie has to pick a replacement, it’s a bit more tricky: The Great Highway closure was the defining issue in the race, but I suspect a clear majority of D4 voters don’t want 12-story highrises in their neighborhood and the demolition of existing sites for small businesses, and the person Lurie chooses will have to run to retain their seat in June, 2026, and if they succeed, again in November, 2026.

Chinese voters, who make up a majority of the district, are not, by and large, big fans of upzoning. From David Ho in Mission Local:

While political experts cautioned that the Chinese community is not a monolith, many of them are “get-off-my-lawn” voters who want to be left alone, said David Ho, a political strategist and former Sunset resident. “I want to park in my driveway. I want to build my in-law unit. Don’t tax me. I care about public safety and schools and quality of life.”

And I think that includes: Don’t increase density to the point where there’s nowhere to park, and my back yard is in shadow all day long, and my local businesses are displaced.

So Lurie has to appoint someone who is popular enough with the D4 voters to survive a fairly quick election—but who also supports his zoning plan, which might be the political equivalent of Engardio supporting the closure of the Great Highway.

The mayor, who won in part with strong support among Chinese voters on the West Side, has stayed out of the recall, which makes perfect political sense. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose by taking a side. (Unless Engardio survives, and decides that he’s not going to play nice anymore with the mayor who abandoned him; that would be interesting.)

But he can’t duck the next move; he has to appoint a D4 supe. That’s not going to be easy.

The pro-recall campaign is holding its Election Night Party at Cecilia’s By the Beach. Haven’t heard back yet where the Stand with Joel party will be, but I will update when they tell me.