The big news in San Francisco tonight is that the Big Money didn’t win.

Most of the votes have been counted, and it appears that the Election Day votes are not much different from those cast early by mail, which means Election Day absentees will be the same too.

Which means the pattern we have seen is probably going to hold. Propositions F, I and L – the three major tax measures on the ballot – are all going to pass. Prop. I – which the Big Money attacked furiously – is winning handily.

Right now, at 11pm, the Department of Elections website isn’t updated the RCV algorithm. But it appears that Connie Chan is winning in D1. Dean Preston has clearly won in D5. It looks as if Myrna Melgar will win in D7. Ahsha Safai is going to be re-elected in D11.

That means the progressives will maintain their majority on the board, although possibly not the same eight-vote majority they (sometimes) had.

A measure that the mayor opposed to split up the Department of Public Works has passed easily.

The mayor announced on Election Day that her top priorities were electing Marjan Philhour in D1 (not happening right now), electing Vallie Brown in D5 (not going to happen), electing Joel Engardio or Melgar in D7 (looks like Melgar, the mayor’s second choice) and re-electing Safai (that’s happening).

So she’s at 50 percent, more or less. If Melgar winds up winning in D7, she will become an important swing vote on the board, particularly when it comes to electing a new board president in January.

A nice little note: While Uber and Lyft have won their measure to overturn state labor law, 60 percent of San Franciscans vote No on 22. Something for our local officials to consider when they think about regulating tech companies in the future.

With 49.5% of votes counted throughout the state, NO on proposition 25 is staying consistent with earlier reports, standing at 54%.

The San Francisco vote on this issue does not align with the statewide NO vote, instead votes for YES on Proposition 25 in the city are leading with a large margin (57.52% on YES).

WIth over 50% of the state vote counted, a YES vote on Prop 22 is leading with a 57.6% majority.

However, the most recent vote count from San Francisco (66% of overall) shows an overwhelming NO vote on Prop 22 with 59.7% of SF voters voting against the campaign by Uber, Lyft, and other ride sharing and delivery services.

“It’s clear this race will not be called tonight,” said Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon of the race for a Senate seat, and incumbent Susan Collins obviously agreed, as both campaigns put a lid on the night to face more ballot counting afresh tomorrow. According to the New York Times, “with just over half of the votes counted, Ms. Collins maintained not just an overall lead, but held more than 50 percent of the vote.”

With 73 percent of the vote counted in CA District 1, Republican Doug LaMalfa maintains has a five percent lead over democrat Audrey Denney, with 121,129 to 109,380 votes.

There are no updates for District 50—the race between Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar (leading with one percent of the vote) and Republican Darrell Issa—as of last count.

While Prop 15 remains very close in California with about 50% of the vote counted, the NO vote is currently leading with a slim 50.3% majority.

However, the early result from San Francisco (with 61% of votes counted) is strongly for YES, with 72% of voters in favor of tax reform that adjusts reassessment terms for commercial and industrial properties.

Incumbents are mostly leading in the races for School Board and Community College Board.

Shannell Williams leads Tom Temprano in the Community College Board race, by 5,510 votes which puts Williams at 18.17 percent and Temprano at 17.49 percent. Aliya Chisti has 11.69 percent of votes while Alan Wong is at 11.67 percent.

Incumbent Jenny Lam leads the Board of Education race with a 17.52 percent. Incumbent Mark Sanchez is not far behind with 17.05 percent. Challengers Kevin Boggess and Matt Alexander also look in the running.

Proposition 21 would replace the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act that limited the ability to enact rent control. Prop 21 would allow local governments to expand on rent control.

In the early reports of Proposition 21, the majority of California voters, with 15.6% of precincts reported, have voted. After the second report of 44.5% of California precincts, this NO vote continues to lead in the polls by a large margin.

A YES vote on Proposition 25 would be a vote to repeal the current money bail system and replace it with one based on algorithms that consider public safety and flight risk.

While this is a controversial measure that may have unintended (racist) consequences, it would also replace an inherently unfair system.

Early results showed 53% of voters picking NO and current results (49.4%) show a 1% shift to 54% NO.

Proposition 20 would amend several criminal sentencing and supervision laws that currently exist in the state. In early results, with 15.6% of precincts reporting, it looked the majority of California voters have voted NO.

A NO vote on this proposition would prevent the opportunity of parole for individuals who have committed low-risk crimes and increase the prison population. After the report of 44.5% of California precincts, this NO vote continues to lead in the polls by a large margin, currently at 63.5%.

Proposition 15 would increases funding sources for public schools, community colleges and local government services by changing tax assessments of commercial and industrial property. A YES vote brings the state closer to undoing some of the impacts of Proposition 13, which was passed in 1978.

The Prop had an early lead when 15.6% of the precincts in the state were counted, but the latest results  with 44.5% of precincts reporting show a NO vote leading very, very slightly with 50.2%.

Progressives lead in Districts 1and 5. The moderates are retaining D 11. And D7 is still too close to call, but Myrna Melgar appears to be in the lead after the RCV calculation.

In D1, Conne Chan maintains a close lead over Marjan Philhour 39% of the total vote. Chan received 219 extra votes from ranked choice counting. Marjan Pilhour is in second place with 36.83 percent. David Lee takes third place with 19.14 percent.

But in the RCV calculation, Chan is ahead by a small margin.

In D5, incumbent Dean Preston leading with 15,977 votes, representing 51.87 of the votes thus far. Following behind with 3,468 less votes is the challenger, Vallie Brown with only 40.61 of the current vote count.

When the RCV algorithm is run, Preston is comfortably ahead with 55 percent of the vote.

In D7, Joel Engardio came in first – but after RCV, the leader at this point is Myrna Melgar, who had considerable progressive support but also had the endorsement of the mayor. Se’s got 54 percent of the vote

State ballot Proposition 22 exempts app-based transportation and delivery companies from providing employee benefits to certain drivers. A YES vote on this prop overturns AB5, which was passed in 2019.

Uber, Lyft, and Postmates (among others) have spent over $180 million to the YES campaign, and it looks like they have reaped the rewards of their spending. Early indications showed a wide margin for YES with 57.4% of the vote.

With 49.4% of the results counted, the margin has widened slightly to 57.6%. It’s an indication that Prop 22 will likely pass.

The early results show that voters are willing – despite a barrage of anti-tax money – to approve some of the key tax measures in the city.

Early results show support for small businesses as Prop F leading with 69.26 percent. voting yes. This prop will decrease payroll taxes and increase gross receipts taxes which would provide some financial relief to small businesses and certain industries (manufacturing, food services, accommodations, arts). If it had failed the mayor’s budget would be in serious trouble.

Prop. I, the tax increase on high-end real-estate, is also ahead 58-41, and Prop. L, which would tax companies who CEOs make more than 100 percent the salary of average workers, is also leading comfortably.

Prop. B, which would split the Department of Public Works and create a new street-cleaning division, has a 61.27

Prop. G, which would allow 16-year-olds to vote in local races, is almost evenly split but slightly ahead.

As of 8:26 pm, District 50 has reported Democratic candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar to have 107,854 votes (50.5 percent). Darrell Issa, the Republican candidate who is formerly a Representative from the 49th and 48th District, has 105,567 votes (49.5 percent). The 50th Congressional District has 480 precincts which encompasses San Diego and Riverside counties.

With 43 percent of Butte County reporting, incumbent Republican candidate Doug LaMalfa leads Audrey Denney in the House of Representative race for District One. He leads with 40,919 votes (52 percent) to 36,699 (47 percent). District one has 124,793 total registered voters.

Oregon voters approved Measure 110, which decriminalizes low-level drug possession—a “national first that could change the national conversation on drug policy,” according to criminal rights reporter Daniel Nichanian. The ballot measure also directs existing marijuana tax revenue to fund expanded treatment services.

As more urban areas report results, Senate challenger Sara Gideon appears stronger with Democratic support increasing over the last half hour to 39%. Incumbent Collins is still in the lead, however, with Republican support at 54%.

This comes as a surprise as many predicted Gideon would take the lead from the beginning. Following Collins’ 2018 vote to confirm Trump Supreme Court appointee Brett Kavanaugh, $70 million of negative advertising money flooded into the state from Democrats throughout the country who were motivated to target and defeat Senator Collins. Cumberland County, site of Maine’s largest city Portland, still sits at 52% blue for Gideon, with results from Androscoggin County, home to its second largest city of Lewiston, not yet reported. With only 38% of the vote in, NBC News says the race is still too early to call.

The Republican South Carolina incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham has officially won his fourth senate race, according to the New York Times and AP. Jaime Harrison’s defeat makes his campaign one of the most expensive Senate campaigns to be defeated in US history, raising over $100 million in his attempt to unseat the powerful incumbent. In his concession speech, harrison promised that there was still a “New South rising.”

Former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) is leading in Arizona’s Senate race against incumbent Martha McSally (R). With nearly 75% of the vote in, Maricopa County is 55% Kelly and 44% McSally. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, accounts for roughly 61 percent of the state’s population. McSally, a former fighter pilot was appointed to fill Senator John McCain’s seat in 2018 and aligned herself closely with Trump.

Republican poster boy Madison Cawthorn, 25, won a House seat for North Carolina tonight, and immediately set a nasty tone for his tenure.

Cry more, lib.

— Madison Cawthorn (@CawthornforNC) November 4, 2020

An enlightening/enraging profile of his future prospects in the Republican party, by veteran political writer Alex Pareene, adds valuable context.

North Carolina update: As of 7:00 pm PST, incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis has extended his lead, and he now is ahead by 17,500 votes in the Senate race. But there are still more votes to be counted and the lead could once again flip.

Almost immediately after the polls closed, 71 percent of the vote in Arizona has come in. Joe Biden leads by a margin of 218,441 votes. That puts Biden at 53.9 percent and Trump at 44.8 percent, according to AP reports. Results in Maricopa county (Phoenix and Scottsdale) tend to mirror the state — and Biden leads with 54 percent or 142,000 votes, receiving 798,333 of the total 1,473,186 votes cast so far.

Sarah McBride made history tonight by winning a State Senate seat in Delaware as a transgender woman.

“We did it,” McBride wrote on Twitter Tuesday night, announcing victory and thanking her supporters. “I hope tonight shows an LGBTQ kid that our democracy is big enough for them, too.”

We did it. We won the general election.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

— Sarah McBride (@SarahEMcBride) November 4, 2020

With 93 percent of the votes counted in Florida, Trump currently leads, 51.2 percent to 47.8 percent.

While Dade County and other democratic areas of Florida voted strongly for Biden — and the early mail-in ballots favored the Democrat — the Election Day votes swung much more sharply to Trump.

Trump had almost no path to the White House if he lost Florida. Now, the Democrats have to win other key swing states.

In North Carolina, 80 percent of the votes are now in and Joe Biden is still holding a very slim lead – fewer than 5,000 votes — over President Trump. Only three counties — Granville, Franklin and Perquimans — have yet to begin reporting results. President Trump continues to catch up to Biden so these final three counties, as well as the counties with outstanding precincts, may well be the deciding votes. And those are counties where Biden has been doing well.

With eight percent of votes counted, Collins still holds the lead with Gideon closing the gap, 59 percent to 34 percent. The results from Maine’s two largest cities, Portland (located in Cumberland County) and Lewiston (in Androscoggin County), will be telling as the night progresses. Although Republican incumbent Collins appears strong, 48.6% of the vote in Cumberland County is blue for Gideon, with Collins leading with 68% of the vote in Androscoggin County, where only 19% of precincts have reported. Collins leads in Maine’s 13 other counties; the only other blue counties being Lincoln and Sagadahoc.

Wisconsin continues to remain tight as Biden leads Bayfield County 59.9 percent over 39.1, and parts of Eau Claire County 49.8 over 48.1. About 24 percent of the vote is in for Bayfiled and 35 percent in Eau Claire County.

Milwaukee continues to lead for Biden 60.1 percent over 37.9. About 23 percent of the total the vote is in for Milwaukee.

Dane County continues to be the stronghold for Biden; with a whopping 50 percent of its total vote in, he is leading 77.2 percent to 21.2.

Former Governor John Hickenlooper wins the Colorado Senate race with 55.7-42.3 at 68 percent reporting, beating incumbent Republican Corey Gardner. Hickenlooper is currently at 1,279,439 votes while Gardner is at 972,836 votes. Democrats still need three more senators to flip the Senate.

As of 6:50 pm PST, the lead in the North Carolina senate race just flipped and is still very close. With 79 percent of the votes counted, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis now leads Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by approximately 1,000 votes.

More results have come pouring in for the South Carolina Senate race, with 37% of the counties being completely reported. Lindsey Graham leads 54-44 against Jaime Harrison. In Charleston, Harrison is leading Graham 56-43. In Richland County, Harrison is leading Graham 72-27. In Dorchester, Graham is leading Harrison 56-42. Harrison has managed to keep his lead in his home county of Orangeburg, 70-29. And in smaller counties like Dorchester County, Graham is leading Harrison 55-42 and in Oconee County Graham also leads 75-26 against Harrison.

The Milwaukee elections director just announced that they will expect to have final results in the earliest of 5 or 6 am tomorrow morning. Governor Tony Evers has expressed that he expects to know the results of the election by the end of the night. It will be a long night for poll watchers in Wisconsin.

Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper’s lead is decreasing at 55-43 to Republican Cory Gardner. With 55 percent of votes reported, 18 counties that are mostly urban are voting Democratic while 16 counties that are both urban and rural are voting Republican. Meanwhile, MSNBC is projecting a Biden win in the state, which went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Wisconsin has just posted their first results totaling 10 percent of the total vote. So far Biden leads with 50.4 percent over Trump 47.7.

With 18 percent of the vote counted statewide, Donald Trump leads in Michigan by 174,908 votes. That puts Trump at 57.4 percent and Biden at 40.8 percent, according to AP reports. In Oakland county (Pontiac) results mirror the state — Trump  leads by 37,642 votes of the total 303,057 votes cast so far. Where in Wayne County (Detroit)– Biden leads by a large margin of 46,565 votes, receiving 87,561 of the total 130,987. In Genesee County (Flint), Donald Trump leads Election Day voting by 50,645. Regarding Election Day voting, Trump is currently at 61.23 percent and Biden is at 36.54 percent. However, in the vote-by-mail Biden leads with 5,899 votes at 62.72 percent with Trump trailing with 35.19 percent or 3,310 votes.

UPDATE: With 54% of the votes in, and 24% of the votes completely counted, incumbent Lindsey Graham is leading Democrat Jaime Harrison 54-44. Richland County, home of Colombia, the state’s capital city, is reporting Harrison leading Graham 72-27. Harrison has continued to keep his lead in Charleston County 62-38. Harrison is also leading in his home county of Orangeburg 70-29.

Updated results are coming in from South Carolina. As more rural counties begin to report, incumbent Lindsey Graham is leading Democrat Jaime Harrison 55-44. Harrison is still holding his lead in Charleston 62-36. Currently, 45 percent of the vote is being counted with 10 percent being completely counted.

Biden is holding onto a shrinking lead at 50.5 percent of the vote in North Carolina.  In crucial, contested  counties, Biden has maintained a lead: In Jackson County, Biden leads by only 403 votes; and in Robeson County, he is 7,317 votes ahead of President Trump. And this keeps changing by the minute.

UPDATE: With 39 percent of votes reported, Dem Hickenlooper continues to lead Rep Gardner 58-40. As more rural counties come in, Hickenlooper’s lead over Gardner decreases. Archuleta and Jackson counties are complete with Gardner winning both.

Democratic challenger and former Governor John Hickenlooper leads in initial reports for the Colorado Senate race. At last count, Hickenlooper was ahead with 62.41 percent while Republican Cory Gardner follows with 35.78 percent. At 29% turnout reported so far, Jefferson, Broomfield, Summit, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Arapahoe, and Denver counties are voting Democratic while Mesa and Teller counties are voting Republican.

Trump’s margin in Florida is hitting 232,000 votes. Miami-Dade still has 132,000 votes remaining. There are also Tampa, with 30,000 left, and Duval still has about 45,000 votes to be cast.

The first results are coming in from South Carolina, Democrat Jaime Harrison is leading incumbent Lindsey Graham, 56-42. With Charleston County reporting Harrison leading Graham by 63-35. Results from the smaller rural counties have not been counted yet. Graham has held the South Carolina Senate seat for the last three terms, and has stated he feels confident he will win this election. Harrison has served as an aide to Rep. James Clyburn, the first African-American chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, and is running one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history (raising approximately $131 million). A win for the Democrats would be a huge step toward Biden’s party controlling the Senate.

With 3,542,888 of the votes counted. Joe Biden has gained the lead in the race in North Carolina, jumping to 54.1 percent by winning major cities like Raleigh and Charlotte. Donald Trump is not too far behind with 44.9 percent. It’s still way to early to call North Carolina — but if Biden wins it would be a huge blow to Trump’s chances of getting re-elected.

In North Carolina, 9,484 votes have been counted at this point. With 66.4 percent of the vote, Donald Trump is temporarily ahead with more votes to be counted. Joe Biden trails with 31.2 percent. The major cities like Raleigh and Charolette have not been counted fully so there might be a chance for Joe Biden’s campaign.

So far in Florida we are seeing a very tight race statewide. Biden still continues to hold the lead in Miami-Dade county, Palm Beach, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tallahassee but it is looking very tight.

The national results are coming in earlier than we expected, thanks to states counting mail-in ballots early. And what we are seeing is what we expected – the swing states are too close to call. Trump, for example, is leading in Florida by a very thin margin – but a lot of heavily Democratic areas haven’t fully reported. In the places that have come in, Biden is generally doing a little bit better than Hillary Clinton did four years ago, and Trump is about where he was four years ago.

Pennsylvania – which Trump pretty much has to win – will be much slower to report, since election officials there couldn’t start counting mailed-in ballots until this morning.

Ohio is looking better for Biden than it did for Clinton at this point four years ago.

Texas could – maybe – be the surprise of the night. In Dallas County, for example, Biden is running about six points ahead of where Clinton was, and even further ahead of where Obama was in his second term.

While all eyes are on the national election, the stakes are also high in San Francisco – and the person who has the most at stake isn’t on the ballot.

Mayor London Breed has pushed hard for supervisor candidates who are more in line with her political agenda. She is strongly backing Proposition A, a bond act that needs a two-thirds vote.

And if Prop. F, the business-tax measure, doesn’t pass, there’s going to be huge hole in her budget.

As Joe Eskanazi at Mission Local notes:

If Prop. A were to fail to receive the necessary two-thirds vote — and this could very well happen — it would not only upset the city’s fiscal apple cart but serve as a striking rebuke for Breed and an unsteadying of her political footing moving forward. She has fund-raised heavily for Prop. A and has become — rather literally — the face of the campaign.

That’s a stark contrast from Prop. F, for which the mayor has raised hardly a thin dime and has minimally supported. And that’s a bit odd, because while it would be inconvenient if Prop. A fails, it would be fiscally calamitous if Prop. F did. And not down the road, like Prop. A, but — especially anticipating what the controller has in store for us — right now. 

Breed has also gone all in on candidates for supervisor in Districts 1 (Marjan Philhour), 5 (Vallie Brown) 7 (Joel Engardio or Myrna Melgar) and 11 (Ahsha Safai.) Or, better put, she has been working to make sure that the progressives lose their board majority.

Typically, large turnout favors progressives in San Francisco, but this time around, with COVID and the turnout likely to reach record levels, it’s anybody’s guess.

In San Francisco, mayors don’t tend to have long coat-tails. In fact, it’s sometimes the opposite – in what amounts to a mid-term election in San Francisco, voters frustrated with the direction of the city might decide to vote against the mayor’s candidates.

But the outcome will also depend on how effective a barrage of toxic, racist lies paid for by Big Real Estate, Big Tech, and GOP donors will be in San Francisco districts.

We may not know all the outcomes for a few days. But we’ll get a measure of the direction of the city tonight.

We here at 48 Hills are happy to provide suggestions for apocalypse-ready cocktails, fizzy lifting drinks, feel-good tales, and fresh tunes:

SIP tight: 7 Cocktails for the end of the world

Puff: Let’s get fizzy with it

Screen Grabs: San Francisco’s real royal family, still glittering onward

Revel in the soul genius of Sharon Jones with new posthumous covers compilation

We’ve got an ace team on the ground—safely—to cover local, state, and national results. Check back here starting around 6pm (SF results come in around 9ish) for up-to-the-minute results and analysis.

Here’s our team of reporters: Ali Aldrees, Grace Avila, Jackie Blandon, Ezra Christianson-Buck, Chloe Green, Shuting Guo, Isabel Ostroff, Faith Quigley, Clara Rosandich, Olivia Scott, Emily Tran, Melanie Valesquez, Dylan Weiss, Taylor Aldrich, Wyatt Dickerson, Claudine Haliman, Katia Hollis, Taleah Johnson, Sophia LeTourneau, Maya O’leary-Cyr, John Paolo, Gabriela Riemer, Sophia Spievak, Cressa Wilmoth, Kendall Anderson, Kwon Atlas, Emilio Galvan, Faaolatoto Griffin, Matthew Guinasso, Jordan Hoy, Kaitlin Kenny, Gissel Madrid, Iliana Madrigal, Matthew Mandich, Isabel Marin, Mary Ellen McDermott, Rebecca Murillo, Julia Sonnet, Vanessa Sicairos, Brandon Sullivan, Kevin Tellez Ramos, Cody Wagner, and Megan Wilinsky