It’s hard to predict the outcome of Tuesday’s election, on the national and local level. The polls aren’t as accurate as they used to be; oddly, technology that has made so many types of predictions easier and more reliable has made polling more expensive and harder to trust: Since hardly anyone answers a cell phone unless they know the caller, it’s hard to get a random sample of voters. Email and text polls are skewed by age and demographics.
But I think we can say this: If Sup. Connie Chan wins the Congressional race, it will be in part because of homeowners on the Westside who typically vote for the more conservative candidate.
Chan is the progressive in the race. She’s also opposed to the sort of massive upzoning for luxury housing towers that state Sen. Scott Wiener has promoted—and she supports opening the Great Highway to cars during the week. Those are popular positions West of 19th Avenue.
Early turnout in District 4, where there is no contested race for supervisor, is already higher than in much of the city. It’s safe to say a fair number of voters are motivated by Prop. G, the Great Highway measure; you can’t drive through the Sunset without seeing Yes on G signs everywhere. Many of those will be Chan voters.
Chan is also, of course, popular with Chinese voters on the Westside.
The electoral patterns in the city won’t be typical in that race, which is why it’s closer than the polls show.
I was watching the Michigan- Rutgers game Saturday, so I got to see a lot of ads for and against Abdul El Sayed. The attack ads were almost a parody of themselves, something I would have expected in the 1950s Red Scare Era: Ominous music, black and white images, threats of fentanyl (brought in by immigrants) destroying communities, paychecks garnished, property rights destroyed, all because El Sayed is a … Socialist!”
He’s not, of course. El Sayed says he supports a capitalist system where markets are regulated and the very rich pay taxes—like for example, the system we had under those radical commies Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon.
This one’s a key race: If El Sayed wins, he not only helps the Democrats retake the Senate, he helps demonstrate that progressive economic policies are a winning message in swing states. His victory would be another sign that (gasp) Socialism isn’t that scary these days. It would empower the likes of Reps. Ro Khanna and AOC, who are considering running for president.
It would also terrify the old-guard Democratic leadership, which has been moving to the pro-corporate right ever since the days of Bill Clinton.
The Planning Commission will consider Thursday/5 groundbreaking legislation by Sup. Chyanne Chen that would limit the displacement of existing low-income renters when buildings are demolished under the mayor’s new zoning plan. The plan would apply to Priority Equity Geography districts, and would
require property owners seeking to demolish residential units to construct at least as many units as will be demolished or existed on the project site within the prior seven years; to require property owners seeking to demolish certain residential units in the Priority Equity Geographies Special Use District (PEG SUD) to replace those units at an affordable rent or an affordable cost in proportion to the number of lower-income renters in the PEG SUD, and to replace a percentage of units as affordable to extremely low-income households; to require project sponsors to replace certain demolished rent-controlled units at an affordable rent or cost.
In other words: No demolishing existing rental units unless they are replaced with units that rent for the same price, and the existing tenants have a right to remain in San Francisco after the new project is built.
If the city is, in fact, supporting “Family Zoning,” then it should support protecting existing families from displacement by speculators who want to tear down low-rent building and replace them with luxury units for rich people.
The legislation is co-sponsored by Sups. Jackie Fielder and Shamann Walton.
The Planning Department staff recommends that the commission oppose the bill. This will be a key litmus test for the current Board of Supes and the mayor. The hearing starts at noon.
Here’s a sign of how far the local Sierra Club has fallen: The Club is opposing Sup. Rafael Mandelman’s efforts to create a Castro Historic District.
Mandelman wants to give some preservation protections to an area of roughly two blocks along Castron, between Market and 18th. It’s hard to argue against the historic character of a district that, as the legislation states
is associated with the neighborhood’s deep and rich history as a globally recognized center for LGBTQ community-building, cultural production, pride, and politics; being of critical importance to the internationally significant gay liberation movement, including having served as the home and political organizing location for Harvey Milk, San Francsico’s first openly gay City Supervisor.
But the Sierra Club has been taken over entirely by Yimbys, who say that the designation could make it harder to demolish existing buildings and put up new, bigger ones.
The proposal comes before the Land Use and Transportation Committee Monday/2. The meeting starts at 1:30.
Full disclosure: My independent adult daughter works for Connie Chan for Congress.
