We now have a good idea what city government will look like for the next two years—and we have some idea of the massive challenges that will face an untested and inexperienced mayor and several new members of the Board of Supes.
It’s not going to be pretty.
Daniel Lurie, of course, will be the next mayor. He has yet to tell us who he plans to hire for key positions in his administration. That will make a huge difference, since he will need folks with experience running city government.
The Board of supes will lack a progressive majority for the first time since 2019; if today’s results hold, progressives will hold seats in D1, D9, D10 and D11, and Sups. Myrna Melgar (D7) and Rafael Mandelman (D8) will become swing votes.
The billionaire-Big Tech slate will control D3 and D5, and will have support from Sup. Matt Dorsey in D6, and likely whoever replaces Sup. Catherine Stefani in D2, who just got elected to the state Assembly. If she resigns before January, Mayor London Breed will make that appointment.
So it’s going to be four progressives, five center-right friends of the billionaires, and two in the middle.
Melgar or Mandelman will likely be the next board president, because nobody can win without the four progressives and the two of them.
Here is what they are facing:
The city has, at this point, a structural budget deficit of more than $700 million. That’s assuming that Donald Trump doesn’t cut some of the almost $500 million that San Francisco gets each year from the federal government. Add in some deep Trump cuts and we’re looking at a potential billion-dollar shortfall—and the General Fund, which will have to absorb that shortfall, is about $6.5 billion.
That’s 16 percent that could have to be cut. From where?
Lurie talks about auditing nonprofits, and maybe there’s a little money that’s being wasted (as we know there was in the Dreamkeeper Initiative) but you’re not getting huge sums there unless you cut essential services.
In the past, the cuts have come in the areas where the city spends the most money (except for police and fire, which Lurie will exempt): public health, Muni, libraries, public works … all of these areas have an impact on people’s lives. Cut too much and the residents will be unhappy: When psych beds are cut at SF General Hospital, more people with serious mental health issues are on the streets. When Muni is cut, people can’t get around town. When public works is cut, nobody’s around to fix sewage backups and potholes.
Lurie has promised to clear tent encampments and address homelessness—but that means either taking unhoused people’s shelter away, and letting them get sick and die from exposure on the streets in the rainy season, or finding them places to live. Which costs money.
You get the picture.
Then consider what Trump is proposing: He has vowed on Day One to start rounding up and deporting immigrants. Lurie has said he wants to see a lot more housing construction—but a significant part of the construction industry workforce is made up of immigrants, some of them undocumented. Restaurants will fail. Food prices will soar.
What happens when young American citizens, who were born in this country, face the deportation of their parents? What happens when SFUSD students try to go home from school and there’s nobody there because their parents have been arrested?
How will the local police and sheriffs handle things when ICE comes to town and demands their cooperation—and Trump threatens to cut off all of the city’s federal money if we maintain our Sanctuary City status?
All of this will put more pressure on city services, which will already be facing huge cuts. Mayor Lurie will have to work with a divided and in some cases inexperienced board to address a serious crisis.
Gov. Gavin Newsom says the state will be a beacon of resistance—but the state also has a serious budget crisis, and what cities will need is not rhetoric but cash.
The federal government can borrow money to fund a deficit. San Francisco can’t: By law, the budget has to balance.
In a time of shortfalls, the options are limited: Make massive cuts, seek state help, raise service costs (like Muni fares) or raise taxes.
The state limits which taxes San Francisco can raise. The city can’t increase property taxes and can’t impose a city income tax. So local government in California has to resort to sales taxes (unpopular and very regressive) or taxes on high-end property sales (which Lurie hasn’t supported) or higher business taxes (ditto).
Will Newsom, who talks a good line about opposing Trump, seek to raise income taxes on the rich in the state to help fund cities and counties who are fighting to survive? That doesn’t require going to the ballot; the state Legislature and the governor can set income tax rates (and could impose a wealth tax). So far, he has shown no interest.
So congratulations, Mayor Lurie. Congratulations, billionaire-backed supes. You are about to find out that the promises you made are impossible unless you are willing to work with the progressives and defy the big donors who put you in office.
A final word:
There will be plenty of time to write in detail about the legacy of three outgoing supes, but let me say a few quick words, which just touch the surface of the careers of people who have had a huge, positive, impact on San Francisco:
I will very much miss Sup. Aaron Peskin, because he knew how the city ran, knew how to get the bureaucracy to work, and was a master at using the ballot to promote progressive policies. He was also one of the most accessible politicians I have ever worked with; he took phone calls from every reporter in town, even if they attacked him. He met with constituents in the streets and in the cafes. He really loved public policy, and even when we disagreed, his passion for making the city better did, indeed, make the city better.
I will very much miss Sups. Hillary Ronen and Dean Preston, not just because of the important policy initiatives they pushed and won, but because they were really, really good at holding the mayor and department heads accountable.
Week after week, in hearing after hearing, Ronen and Preston demanded answers, pushed city officials to do better, and provided oversight for the public.
They also did amazing constituent service. From Chris Arvin:
My neighbors in Bernal Heights, some of them not terribly political, were always amazed at how easy it was to call Ronen’s office, report some issue with trash, or parking, or streets, or anything—and get an immediate response.
Ronen was, of course, termed out. Preston lost to the billionaires, who attacked him relentlessly for two years or more.
In one post I saw on Twitter, Max Dubler described Preston’s defeat at “a Yimby victory.” From Harlo Pippenger:
So now, of course, the Yimbys have control of city, and state, government. Which means, if they are right, housing prices in San Francisco will start to fall to the level where the existing workforce can afford to live here.
If that actually happens in the next five years, I will be thrilled to admit that I was wrong, and buy the leaders of SF Yimby a round at their favorite drinking establishment.
Sadly, I don’t think I need to set aside money for a bar bill.
