As of May 28, five days before the primary election, fewer than 12 percent of registered voters have turned in a ballot, Elections Department Data shows. That’s very low turnout. It’s low even in District 8, which doesn’t have a supe election, but was once represented by state Sen. Scott Wiener, who is running for Congress, and which traditionally has some of the highest turnout in the city.
I still think, based on people I know who are reliable voters, that the race for governor remains confusing, and lots of folks are waiting until the last minute to make up their minds. But still: We could be looking at an exceptionally low turnout election, when one of the most important and safe Congressional seats in the country is on the line and so is the future balance of the Board of Supes.
Low-turnout elections in theory favor more conservative candidates, since the more moderate-to-conservative and older voters are more likely to go to the polls. But this could be different.
Saikat Chakrabarti is pouring millions ($10 million so far) into a campaign that involves a ton of social media, TV ads, and mail. He’s also paying canvassers. Wiener’s allies are pouring millions into attacking Chakrabarti, mostly through mail. Big Tech is pouring millions into attacking Prop. D, the tax on big corporations that overpay their CEOs.
Buying TV ads in a low-turnout race is an expensive gamble, and often a waste: At least half, probably three-quarters, of the people who see those ads won’t end up voting. The people who do turn out this time are likely to be highly motivated voters, people who really care about a candidate and aren’t likely to be influenced by all that money. (Door-to-door has a lot more impact).
The voters who turn out in an election like this tend to be more motivated and informed, and thus less likely to be influenced by big money.
And interestingly, 13.4 percent of voters who requested a Chinese language ballot have turned it in; that’s a lot higher than overall turnout. And Chan, a Chinese-speaking immigrant, will have a lot of support from those voters.
This is, by definition, a “change” election: Not only are voters around the country sick of the Trump Administration, and sick of the Old Guard, of the Democratic Party, but San Francisco will elect a new member of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
KQED interviewed some young voters, talking about the two progressives, Chakrabarti and Chan, who are presenting themselves as the change candidates. Wiener is and long has been part of the Party Establishment—which is why it’s even more remarkable that Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Chan.
Chakrabarti is doing his best to get those young, progressive, left-leaning voters, talking constantly about his connections with AOC (who, pointedly, has not endorsed him).
Today, however, Sup. Dean Preston, the only democratic socialist to sit on the Board of Supes in decades, issued a statement in support of Chan:
In the closing days of this critical primary election, I want to reiterate my endorsement of Connie Chan for Congress.Over the four years I worked alongside Connie on the Board of Supervisors, she was always a strong advocate and ally for tenant rights, affordable housing and working people. She also had the courage to speak out on just causes such as supporting my resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza well before it became the widely acceptable position it is today.
Connie’s experience and track record show that she will stand up to big real estate and corporate power and will advance a progressive agenda that meets the needs of everyday people’s lives. This is also why she is being outspent more than 10 to 1 in this election.
We need politicians who are independent from billionaires and corporate interests. We need to build democracy with candidates who have roots in communities, are supported by grassroots campaigns, and will remain accountable to the people who elected them. For all these reasons, I am proud to join the teacher’s union, nurses, and other organized labor, the SF Tenant Union, and many others to support Connie Chan for Congress.
We will be bringing you live election-night coverage and analysis—although if the current trends continue, and a majority of the voters wait until the last minute to mail in or cast their ballot, many of the races won’t be decided until several days later.
Full disclosure: My daughter works on the Connie Chan for Congress campaign.
