Coverage brought to you by the 48 Hills Election Night Team. Reporters: Philippe Bienick, Lily Jaramillo, Audrey Jonas, Leonardo Lluberes, Olyvia Manor, Julian Myers, Frida Ruiz De La O, Georgia Srabian, and Sofia Weinberg. Photographers: Kaleb Martinez and Quin Stevens. Editors: Marke Bieschke and Tim Redmond
It’s going to take months to fully analyze the San Francisco returns and figure out why the progressives lost almost everything. But there’s no way to understand this election without looking at the massive, unprecedented, sums of money a handful of very rich people poured into the key races to elect candidates and pass measures that support the Big Tech and Real Estate agenda.
Between his own campaign and the IE money, state Sen. Scott Wiener had $17 million on his side, far, far more than Sup. Connie Chan. Mayor Daniel Lurie had $13 million to pass his ballot measures. The opponents of those measures had a few hundred thousand.
Money alone doesn’t explain political outcomes: Elon Musk spent more than $250 million to keep the Democrats from winning in Texas, and he lost. But that was part of a national rebellion against Donald Trump, and none of the races in San Francisco had anything to do with Trump. Not directly: Everyone involved is a Democrat.
The progressives never had the resources to explain to the voters what, say, Prop. D really meant. I got at least five mailers talking about “cleaning up City Hall.” None of them said that the voters would be in effect giving up the right to place initiatives on the ballot.
We had no serious race for US Senate or governor to get the young, progressive voters excited about taking on Trump. It was hard to run against the mayor, who remains popular although a majority of San Franciscans think the city’s economy is going in the wrong direction.
We also have a daily newspaper that remains among the top sources of information for residents that largely ignored the real issues in the Congressional race, never fully reported on the impacts of the mayor’s measures, has long bought into and promoted the idea that the private market will solve our housing crisis—and offered an entirely reactionary set of endorsements that Wiener and the mayor’s allies freely used as campaign mailers
The demographics of the city have changed in the past decade as more wealthier people move here for tech jobs. Some are millionaires already; some expect that they’ll be millionaires soon. The idea of a billionaire agenda isn’t at all alarming to them.
But that’s not a majority of San Francisco. A majority of San Francisco, including a lot of people who would have voted for Chan, didn’t cast ballots. When all the votes are counted, turnout will be about 60 percent. In some part of town, including D9 and D10, it could be below 50 percent.
Here are some reports from Election Night that give some sense of how people were feeling:
From our correspondent Frida De La O:
A large crowd of San Franciscans in support of Connie Chan gathered at Gray Area on Mission St. Chan merch being sold at the entrance, buttons reading ‘Connie Chan for congress’ and navy blue shirts with “CONNIE” written across the chest. The crowd buzzed with hope and excitement, with boxes of pizza stacked to the left of the room, and a photo background reading phrases “The future is ours to build” and “we are here to change what comes next.”
Attendee Osha Ashworth said “being someone who comes from a working family, and understanding the struggles of working people is really important to bring into congress”
Videos of Chan greeting community members projected on a main screen and attendees mingled. Many were grabbing a drink at the bar and bustling at tables chatting all things Chan. Attendee Brady Fell said, “I’m hopeful, I think she had a lot of headwinds because of name recognition and because of all the money that Scott Wiener had, but I mean, I’m hopeful” Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi endorsed Chan earlier this year.
Chan’s popularity stems from a working-class background and an inspiring story. Fell continued “It would be great for the city to see someone who’s immigrated to the United States and now could be in the house”
When early results showed Wiener at 57 percent and Chan at 43 percent, the crowd remains hopeful. It’s theoretically possible that as the final votes are counted, Chan could pull ahead, but she would need 56 percent remaining ballots.
Olivia Morris said “we are up against crazy PAC funding, this is a really grass roots movement, no matter what it’s going to be an uphill battle” Matt Richardson added “I’m committed to the end. I want to get the final count”
Rudy Gonzalez took the stage to introduce supporters of Chan. Kim Tavaglioni, the head of the SF Labor Council, said “this is the beginning of our movement…to fight for the working men and women.”
Speakers mentioned countless policies that Chan supports, from housing, something Chan’s campaign didn’t focus on too much, to the support of limitations on AI.
The lead labor representative the California Nurses Association, Dominic Chan, pointed at his shirt with Wiener’s face, with text at the bottom reading ‘There is no anthropic money in this race…’
“He is a liar,” Chan said, reading it out loud the crowd cheered, then began a chant “Yes, we Chan” that roared through the room of the Gray Area.
Connie Chan, introduced by Gonzalez, kept her speech upbeat. “We all want an answer tonight, but every voter deserves to have their ballots counted. We owe it to them, to be patient, to get this right” she continued “You gave this campaign courage, your time and your belief that working people, all working people, can shape our future” she thanked her canvassers, her family and Pelosi for paving the way of public service in the city and before leaving she thanked the crowd of supporters. Chan left swiftly as the crowd began to chant “Yes we Chan.”
From our correspondent Philippe Bienick:
I entered the Mission Rock Resort a little after 9pm to a raucous atmosphere. By the time I arrived, District 10 Supervisor candidate Theo Ellington had wrapped up a speech in front of a crowd of friends and family. Everybody had a drink in their hand and carried a lighthearted mood, all before any result was even announced. As I made my way through his family and friends, the DJ cut the track as Ellington grabbed the microphone. At this moment, he announced his victory. A chant saying “Theo! Theo!” followed.
I got a chance to interview Ellington after a decent wait; the candidate took time to celebrate with his closest family, friends, and partners. Finally, he graciously got back to me. I asked him about his plans for his first 30 days in office, as well as concerns about his pro-housing agenda at all income levels. I also questioned him on his support from crypto billionaire Chris Larsen and his support on the moratorium for AI data centers. Finally, I wrapped up with his plans for the Hunter’s Point shipyard cleanup.
His answers consist mainly of his grounded campaign talking points. He emphasized the need to improve the transit corridors and its surrounding infrastructure in the Bayview, and how dense housing needed to accommodate for that. As for how he would gain political and fiscal support for affordable housing, he mentioned how the market and state legislation would force him to “have to get creative.” For improving the transit corridor, he could not give specifics on improving transit times.
Chris Larsen was not present at the event. Daniel Lurie briefly came by, and left in a matter of minutes. Supervisor Matt Dorsey was present.
From our correspondent Olyvia Manor:
People are hesitant to comment on their position on Proposition G, the Great Highway measure, whose supporters shared a party with Connie Chan. They often mention that it has been on ballot before and in that regard it’s a sign that the people do not feel like their voices are heard.
However, when I was able to have a conversation with Otto Pippinger, the face of the Yes on G campaign, he said that he was not surprised by the outcome, but still though he had succeeded. He shared that it was less about the electoral results, since he knew that he could only offer the proposition a “25-40 percent chance” of passing, but rather that he was able to give voice to the people who had been drowned out the first time around. For him, it was a small defeat in a larger movement of bringing together the people who continue suffering these smaller loses and will eventually grow into a greater power against the mainstream.
From our correspondent Leonardo Lluberes:
As soon as you enter the front door at El Rio,, you have to push through crowds of all sorts of folks. You can see the old and young, people of every race and creed, and of course people on the left. The progressive wing of San Francisco politics is hosting an election watch party. Members of organizations like the Harvey Milk Club, the Democratic Socialists of America, and the Working Families Party are all over the bar. Drinks and pizza boxes litter every table and chair, with everyone drinking beers and cheering as they hear another Democratic victory in the Senate.
Friends and families are meeting up with signs and campaign merch, with even some candidates like Bunny McFadden present at the party. McFadden, a candidate for the City College board, talks about progressive organizing in this election for Props I and B. She says, “We’ve shown that we have the infrastructure to push forward things that are way outside of our weight class, and that we’re really good at keeping our values intact when we move through electoral politics.”
With every update on the results, you’d either hear groans or cheers, with everyone openly discussing and debating what those results mean for the total.
It was a Who’s Who in the bar with local progressive leaders like Dean Preston and Sup. Jackie Fielder. Jane Kim, the leader in the race for state insurance commissioner, even made an appearance, giving a rousing speech about the need for organizing a progressive movement across the state, and the importance of coalition building.
I was able to get a hold of her for an interview where we talked about what other progressive candidates can emulate in their campaigns. She said “We showed that you can have an unapologetic populist campaign taking on corporate billionaires and win in the state of California. But you have to win with the message, and we came with a message. A policy platform, about how we were gonna fight for everyday California and working families, and it resonated across the state.”
There is good news for progressives: It looks as if Proposition B, the Public Bank Initiative, could pass. As of the latest results, it’s down by just 300 votes, and the later votes are breaking more progressive. And Kim has a 52-48 percent lead over Ben Allen for insurance commissioner.
To nobody’s surprise, Prop. C, the affordable housing trust fund measure, passed; the mayor and his cronies supported it. They opposed Prop. I, which would have allocated tax money from high-end property sales to social housing; it went down to defeat.
