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Uncategorized Tonight: How we win in 2015 and beyond

Tonight: How we win in 2015 and beyond

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A forum looks at electoral strategy for progressives in San Francisco

48hillsurbanideaforum

By Tim Redmond

FEBRUARY 26, 2015 — The left has to start winning more elections, or there won’t be any of us left in this town. That, of course, is part of the strategy of some downtown types; the Committee on JOBS has said outright that driving the renters and the lower-income people out of San Francisco and replacing them with more conservative homeowners would change the politics of the city.

That’s not crazy paranoia; that’s part of what’s happening here.

And while we talk about policy and resistance, we also need to talk about strategy – what works, how we learn from past mistakes, and how we can organize better. That’s why Urban IDEA is holding a forum tonight on “How we win: Strategies for 2015 and beyond.” We’ll hear about voting patterns, voting by mail, community-based electoral strategies and the way to reach voters all over the city.

It’s free, it’s at the Bayanihan Community Center, 1010 Mission, and it starts at 6pm. See you there.

Tim Redmond
Tim Redmond has been a political and investigative reporter in San Francisco for more than 30 years. He spent much of that time as executive editor of the Bay Guardian. He is the founder of 48hills.

48 COMMENTS

  1. I guess all those years of chronicling progressive failures as “oh it’s not so bad” and “oh we’re still winning hearts and minds” at the dead Bay Guardian are finally facing reality – progressives are seen as losers because…they lose. When the left couldn’t get a real candidate up against a Mayor Newsom sinking in scandal in 2007, you knew then something was amiss. Today the “left” is nothing more than a simmering stew of hatred stoked by Old Hippies, a few young malcontents, and the politicians who thrive on stoking ethnic conflict (i.e. Avalos and Campos). None of you can see past the Mission or even bother to talk to someone from Anywhere Else, and as such, you’re losers! Keep on LOSING and soon this city will be owned by the realtors, tech dickwads, and out of towners who will get that freeway in GGP built. Thanks, assholes.

  2. TK, at least I post on topic rather than come here only to hurl personal attacks at others.

    That soup kitchen opens at 11am, by the way.

  3. Guest8:02, I can pay for my own psychoanalysis, thanks. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, though, as here: facts are stubborn things.

  4. You try to steer debates towards dry facts because you believe that is your strength and that kind of skew will give you an edge.

    But facts in politics are generally cherry-picked to support a given pre-determined position or value.

    Politicians don’t need no stinking facts.

  5. Guest6:53, we were talking about debate, not politics. Commanding facts might actually be a handicap in politics, though once you govern you’d better hire people who can do it for you.

    Data never persuades or convinces anyone of anything, but it supports the facts. When people make entirely false claims, I’ll correct them. Reasoned disagreement is impossible when everyone works with his own, false facts.

  6. WC, you focus on dry factual data because that is how your mind works. You are left-brained and so believe that if only you analyze more, you will reach truth and enlightenment, and therefore gain influence.

    But politics is a dirty grubby affair, and more about the heart than the head. So you trot our reams of “data” and yet somehow never persuade or convince anyone. So what’s the point, except to pass the time?

  7. Campos is in the business of self-promotion, and is perfectly happy to incite racial tension and divisiveness if it elevates his profile.

    And be a NIMBY if it inflates the value of his $1.5 million real estate speculation.

  8. World peace through canoodling?

    When was the last time you canoodled with an Arab terrorist? Let me know how that works out for you.

    Still, it’s good to have a “serious” ambition.

  9. No, Joseph, you admitted that is where you live before you changed your handle here.

    And you changed your handle here after you were ridiculed for claiming that Greece wasn’t in Europe.

  10. Tim:

    I read the comments on your posts and sigh.

    I wish more people simply said: Thank you.

    I like your writing. I admire your thought process. I mostly agree with your opinions.

    I try to read all your posts.

    Thank you for being Tim.

    Theo

  11. Guest9:32 (is that you, sam?), we’re not talking about persuasion, we’re talking about debate. If you haven’t got one clue about facts, you didn’t win.

  12. Both Sam & Marcos need to look at Petrelis’ link as well as the other libertarians here. It is shocking to say the least. Nefarious. Even WC needs to look at it.

  13. You fixation with the idea I live in the Tenderloin is probably classic projection. It is you, oh nameless coward, who probably is a homeless person who posts from the library. At any rate, the shoe must fit, because you’re wearing it.

  14. No, facts rare;y if ever persuade someone to change their politics.

    For instance, we might agree that the top rate of federal income tax is (say) 40%. But you think that is too low and I think it is too high.

    The fact was near irrelevant to the difference in political outlook.

    Greg has certainly gone for good. marcos, if he is posting as one of the Guests, is posting much less. But he might have quit because he was exposed as the imp’er.

    No matter. They’ve gone, and we’re all better for it.

  15. I am not a “marketer of tech,” whatever that’s supposed to mean.
    I write, take photographs, produce videos, and create eBooks.
    I USE “tech” to promote my agenda, which is World Peace Thru Food, Music, and Canoodling.
    And 45 people viewed my ‘pathetically awful” site today.

    Tech is just a tool. Like you…..

  16. Yeah, I was joking around about adding another supe. It just seems like we really have no represnetation here….which, we don’t.

  17. TK, you’re a marketer of tech, heck you keep spamming us with your link to your pathetically awful website. And you of all people should know that plenty of us in tech work at home and spend time on other websites. Like yourself for instance.

  18. Guest4:52 (the eight of you really need to pick names), marcos is one of the other seven Guests.

    Facts are of limited use in politics, but determine debates. If you have the facts wrong, the only way you get anything right is by accident.

    Sure, sometimes Sam does. Even a blind squirrel and all that. But that’s not a win. It’s an acorn.

  19. He certainly sent marcos and Greg packing. We haven’t seen either of them for weeks.

    And facts are of limited use in politics, and rarely determine the winner. Politics are more about values, beliefs and opinions. Demonstrate superiority there and you will generally prevail.

  20. Guest3:10, I haven’t seen anyone lose a debate to Sam, unless you count the times his casual bigotry offends people enough to stop responding.

    When it comes to debating, he can’t even get the facts right, much less win an argument.

  21. First of all, anyone who claims to be wealthy and successful, and is up at midnight trolling discussion boards is, in the words of my friend Gisela, a “big fat liar.” It’s simply not how wealthy/successful people spend their time; they don’t even know 48Hills exists. Second, if you consider yourself to be part of the Judaeo-Christian tradition and worship Mammon, you are going to Hell. Third, if you are a racist/sexist/misogynist/classist, you are already in Hell. Burn baby, burn! San Francisco is eternal; Ed Lee and his trolls are not. A tech/real estate bubble is not “progress,” as the coming deflation will show.

  22. So they may claim. But more interestingly, both of them lost so many debates here against Sam and others, that they retreated from here out of humiliation, and haven’t been seen for weeks.

    It seems they cannot even win here.

  23. Oh, and you think Campos is good at saying no to Hispanic advocacy groups?

    At least Lee can talk to all parties. Campos never leaves his comfort zone.

  24. “As he said himself, it’s hard for him to say no to those who back him.” and to hell with his constituents. what a tool.

  25. I don’t think those on the left who have failed, like marcos and Greg, failed because they lack bad faith. Rather they could not appeal to a broad enough cross-section of the community because their ideas were too extreme for the silent majority of moderate liberal democrats

  26. You assume progressives could ever have won when they are naturally a minority. It may not have mattered that incompetence was thrown into the mix.

  27. I guess we’re not going to hear anyone say “Well, yeah, we shat the bed on progressive politics on my paid watch and I apologize for my role in that, we need to do something different.”

  28. I’m glad to see so many Latinos being gentrified out of the Mission. The reason they are crying foul about the evictions so loudly is because their third-world way of life is being exposed for all to see: overpopulation because of no birth control/condoms, gang violence, and no respect for other people’s residential/commercial property. Glad to see them get priced out permanently!

  29. The number of rounds it takes to get to 50% is largely dependent on the number of candidates running. In this case we had a large number running, including a number of credible household names, and so of course it took several rounds to get a winner. If there has been only a handful of candidates, the result would have been quicker.

    And note that Lee was always 50% higher than the next closest candidate. That is very different from some other RCV elections where the eventual winner was behind after one or more rounds.

    IOW, Lee’s win wasn’t the result of tactical voting, but because far more voters wanted Lee over anyone else. 50% more.

    And in the runoff, Lee won about 60-40 – the textbook definition of a landslide.

    Spin it however it makes yo feel better, but you lost. Badly.

  30. You think Ed Lee won easily? I assume this means you didn’t actually read the election results. He started out with the first count at 35% of the vote. It then took 10 more counts, as more and more votes were dropped out of the equation, for Ed Lee to reach over 50% and claim the win. That is just about unprecedented. Never mind the millions spent on behalf of his election from independent committees like the one Ron Conway established that can accept unlimited contributions from donors otherwise banned from our candidate committees.
    Never has so much money been spent to accumulate so few votes. The only thing easy in Ed Lee’s 2011 election was the ease of raising money from those who wanted him to favor their interests with Ed Lee’s blessing. As he said himself, it’s hard for him to say no to those who back him.

  31. You really are a sad, miserable motherfucker, aren’t you? I bet you’re a blast at parties.

    Go pound sand, ya twerp.

  32. I agree with your assessment of Campos but adding a 12th Supervisor would be a terrible idea. There are already too many at eleven. I believe that LA manages with seven and it is a far bigger city.

    Also, presumably the current eleven districts are about equal in population. So adding a 12th district would probably require all the other district boundaries to change as well.

    Also, I think you need an odd number of Supervisors so that there are no ties when voting.

    That said, above 22nd Street is definitely different in nature to below 22nd – poorer and more Hispanic. I don’t usually find myself south of 22nd.

  33. To all the wingnuts, here’s a hint: quit spending your time trolling this “liberal” site you do nothing but whine about. There’s the door, what’s your hurry?

  34. Here’s a hint: stop with the identity politics and pitting people against one another. Campos seems to only represent Calle 24 these days. They’re even writing his legislation for him now. Hey, if you want a lock on D9 forever, add another supe for the Northern Mission. D12 from 22nd on up…

  35. The left cannot win because it is a minority and becoming smaller.

    Ed Lee beat John Avalos effortlessly. He will be re-elected with even greater ease. And by the time he stands down, in 2020, the job will be mostly done. Class warfare and the politics of envy, as spewed by the left, will be banished and we can actually move forward as a world-class economic powerhouse instead of a last resort for misfits, weirdoes and losers.

    I cannot wait.

    I think Oakland is a better fit for your work.

    Or perhaps Detroit where nobody complains about success and prosperity, because there isn’t any. I think you will be very popular and successful there. Just remember to send your kids to private school there.

  36. ‘..in rich states.. income has a very low correlation with vote preference.’
    http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/rb_qjps.pdf

    Here’s an idea: instead of worrying about whether someone owns or rents or about how much she earns, stop alienating people to your left with incoherent housing policy suggestions. Approach housing the way Vienna did not quite a century ago: build it.

    We haven’t, as I posted yesterday:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=128t

    Population growth in the Bay Area has outstripped permitted units (at household size 2.3) every year since 2007. The shortfall is 34,000 units. That’s the whole story.

    If you want support for ‘progressive’ (i.e., parochial center-left) candidates and policies, at a minimum you have to start making some sense. Better still, consider social democracy.

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