By Tim Redmond
Mayor Ed Lee’s popularity has fallen below the 50 percent mark, the first sign since he took office that he may be vulnerable to a re-election challenge, a new poll shows.
The poll on San Francisco political attitudes, by J. Moore Methods in Sacramento, found that only 45 percent of local voters have a favorable attitude about the mayor. That’s down from 65 percent just a few months ago.
The poll of 400 voters was obtained by 48hills.
Nearly 30 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the mayor. Seven percent had mixed opinions.
Now: Any one poll can be off base. This one also had the Board of Supervisors overall at 37 percent, with 29 percent citing negative opinions and 11 percent holding mixed views.
Previous polls have had both the mayor and the board above 50 percent.
But the marked decline in the mayor’s favorable rating suggests that the ongoing housing crisis, and Lee’s increasingly heavy-handed political tactics, are eroding his once-formidable popularity.
And it adds fuel to the possibility that someone with the ability to mount a serious challenge will take the mayor on in 2015. At this point, nobody has come forward.
The numbers could also be a temporary down-tick.
But a year is a very long time in local politics, and any sign that an incumbent mayor is tumbling will, at the very least, get some potential candidates starting to think.
What are you even talking about? Are you on drugs?
Did you fail political economy 101 or are you just pretending at stupid/trolling?
Lee isn’t an “incumbent” – Rose Pak and Gavin have made that very clear. Do you even read the Chinatown Press???
I love the nascent analysis though – what are you? a team of 25-35 year old PR hacks? It smacks of “born yesterday” with a hint of “I’ve failed my parents”.
This gem was clearly written while on the phone to your parents or that “daddy figure” in your life, that apparently you’ve failed. Was it Willy Brown? It’s that pathetic.
>Your best hope is that we crash into a full-blown recession, and that a more viable candidate than the anti-jobs, anti-growth Avalos materializes.
Fuck off you sad pathetic loser. This town is not for you.
A first year statistics student would get an F for longitudinally comparing completely different polls with different methodologies, as you do here.
But if it really did suggest a negative reaction to Lee’s policies than it is worth noting that he fares better than the BOS which is more likely to pass a law allowing people to assault tech workers.
Well, a lot of us “moderates” don’t like Ed Lee that much either, as he’s not terribly competent at his job. Problem is, his opponent in the next election will be some frothing-at-the-mouth idiot who will run on a platform of making it legal to assault software engineers on the street and demanding that 120% of units in new housing be given completely free of charge to anyone making less than $10K, etc. etc. And so …
Can’t wait to dump this Silicon sycophant. Anyone but Lee!
This downward trend could have some force. People may become more vocal in their opposition.
Even if the poll is genuine, it still shows 50% more voters like Lee than dislike him. And it’s no coincidence that in the last mayoral election, 50% more voters chose Lee over the second-placed Avalos.
Incumbents usually win when the economy is good, and SF’s economy has been stellar, with the unemployment rate halved under Lee’s watch, and thousands of freshly-minted millionaires have been made.
Your best hope is that we crash into a full-blown recession, and that a more viable candidate than the anti-jobs, anti-growth Avalos materializes.