Sponsored link
Saturday, July 12, 2025

Sponsored link

News + PoliticsElectionsWhat to look for as tonight's election results come in

What to look for as tonight’s election results come in

Swing district, taxes—and the national fear factor

-

There’s so much to think about Tuesday night.

My Politico nightly email newsletter, by Charlie Mahtesian, puts it in the bleakest terms possible:

It’s time to talk about it out loud: This year’s election is going to be a train wreck. Not just Election Day, but the weeks and perhaps even months to come.

Honey Mahogany is challenging Sup. Matt Dorsey in a key race in D6

For starters, it might not be clear who controls the House for days, or longer. In the Senate, it could be weeks. In fact, if the polling averages are correct , we might not know who controls the Senate until after a potential early December runoff in Georgia.

But that’s the least of the trouble ahead. All the elements of a perfect storm are present: a rise in threats against election administrators and poll workers; outdated and overstrained election infrastructure; a brain drain of officials experienced with the complexities of administering elections; external cyber threats; and an abundance of close races that could extend long past Election Day as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted, recounted and litigated.

President Biden is not at all over the top when he says that American democracy is at stake in the midterms. The guy has been pretty cautious for most of his political life. He was at best a centrist Democrat in the Senate, someone who tried to “respect” that institution even as it became more and more clear that it was an anti-democratic horror show.

But this is now very real.

If the Republicans control the House, the entire agenda will be about destroying the Biden presidency, just as the Republicans tried to destroy the Obama presidency. It’s not about governing, it’s about winning.

Sponsored link

Help us save local journalism!

Every tax-deductible donation helps us grow to cover the issues that mean the most to our community. Become a 48 Hills Hero and support the only daily progressive news source in the Bay Area.

We may not know all the results on Election Night. In the key Senate race in Georgia, it’s likely that neither major candidate will get 50 percent plus one (there’s a libertarian in the race), triggering a December runoff.

I’m worried that the huge rainstorm that is headed for the West Coast will dampen voter turnout. Only about 25 percent of San Francisco voters have turned in their ballots.

So here’s what I am going to look for on Election Night:

Pennsylvania and Georgia are clearly national tipping points. But so, in an odd way, is the race for governor of New York.

New York is a Big Blue state, almost as much as California. But a Trump-backed Republican candidate whose platform is essentially more cops and fracking the western side of the state is within a few points in the polls.

If Lee Zeldin wins that race, the Democratic failure will be profound and dramatic. If Gov. Kathy Hochul can hold on, it will indicate that the Republicans tactics of crime and fear have limited, if powerful, impact.

Mostly, I will be watching California and San Francisco. And here are the things that will matter:

Proposition 1 is a Constitutional amendment that will enshrine reproductive rights as a fundamental right in California. It’s going to pass. If it gets more than 60 percent of the vote, that will send a national signal; if the number is lower, the message won’t be a strong.

If Props. 26 and 27 both go down, which is entirely possible, it will suggest that maybe the best way to address a complicated issue like sports gambling isn’t to have two different sides put up $300 million each to attack the other’s approach.not

If Prop. 30 loses, it will show that Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is the only visible opponent and has made TV ads against it, still has a lot of political credibility, even when he is undermining his own climate agenda in the name of trying not to offend the very rich people whose support he needs to run for president.

In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed isn’t on the ballot, but her candidates are. In Districts 4 and 6, the mayor and her agenda are very much on the line: If Gordon Mar beats Joel Engardio, and Honey Mahogany ousts Sup. Matt Dorsey, it will indicate that Breed still has little in the way of coattails and not a lot of credibility.

If Engardio and Dorsey win, it will shift the balance of power on the Board of Supes, giving the mayor the ability to veto legislation without worrying much about an override.

Then there’s a question of taxes.

Everyone who has seen any polling knows that the voters are unhappy, and a clear majority think the city is on the wrong track. Breed’s allies have been playing on that narrative with ads that say the city is so badly mismanaged that we shouldn’t put up any more money for local programs and services.

The fir big test will be Prop. L, which pretty much everyone at City Hall agrees is not only a good idea but necessary for the future of Muni (and that means for the future of the city). But it needs a two-thirds vote, and that’s always tough: At least 20 or 25 percent of the voters are against all taxes. So a large majority of everyone else has to vote Yes.

Then we have Prop. O, to save City College, and Prop. M, the tax on vacant apartments. Both just need 50 percent.

Early results should be in by 8:45. We will be analyzing the results as they come in.

48 Hills welcomes comments in the form of letters to the editor, which you can submit here. We also invite you to join the conversation on our FacebookTwitter, and Instagram

Tim Redmond
Tim Redmond
Tim Redmond has been a political and investigative reporter in San Francisco for more than 30 years. He spent much of that time as executive editor of the Bay Guardian. He is the founder of 48hills.
Sponsored link
Sponsored link

Featured

Britney blackout: Author Jeff Weiss relives the ’00s pop culture cataclysm

Music journalist's gonzo new book 'Waiting for Britney Spears' dives into the tabloid-strewn wreck of the schlocky decade.

Under the Stars: Madlib’s sonic crystal ball spins again

Plus: Kendra Morris scores a reggae-tinged 'Flat Tire,' Jay Som rocks back with 'Float,' Directions in Stereo dips into the wax stacks

Good Taste: An obsessive early guide to the Outside Lands food multiverse

Fun bevs, free samples, fries as meals, super splurges, and more: It’s not too soon to plan your festival menu.

More by this author

Will supes oust one of the most effective members of the Homeless Oversight Commission?

And what does this say about the mayor and the board changing policy on Prop C and 'housing first?'

Supes to vote on Billionaire Budget deal amid protests over housing money

Plus: A crackdown on RV parking that will make more families homeless, and will the Police Commission do a real national search for the next chief? That's The Agenda for July 6-13

Wiener-Newsom CEQA ‘reform’ is a dangerous fraud

Lithium battery factories without environmental review. Miami Beach development along the coast. And it's not going to make housing more affordable
Sponsored link

You might also likeRELATED