By Tim Redmond
NOVEMBER 4, 2014 (8:45 pm) – The national picture is a train wreck. Over at Daily Kos, Markos is saying “Fuck this night.” The Republicans are going to control both the House and the Senate. Obama’s going to be on the ropes.
Jerry Brown will, of course, will California, for what it’s worth. And the Dems will pick up a few governors. But it’s pretty much a train wreck.
So here in San Francisco, we sort of need to buck the trend. And it’s hard to say at this point where we’re going.
The early absentees are out, and David Campos trails David Chiu by 9,000 votes. Those are the most conservative votes in the city, and reflect the overwhelming absentee vote in Chinatown, which is probably 90 percent for Chiu. It appears that 17 percent of the registered voters are early absentees; if the turnout is only 35 or 40 percent, that’s half the vote.
But the absentees also skew heavily toward the west side of town, and outside of Assembly District 17.
As one person at the Campos party just told me, “this is as bad as it’s going to get.”
So as soon as we get Election Day results, we can tell if the trend that will shift toward Campos is strong enough.
It’s waaay to early to predict the other local races, except:
Prop. A, the Muni and transportation bond, is already about two-thirds, so it’s going to pass. Prop. C, the Children’s Fund, is going to pass.
Prop. E, the soda tax, is pretty much a dead heat and needs two-thirds. We will have to see how the votes break as they come in later.
Prop. G, the anti-speculation tax, is behind 59-41; again, about what we expected. “The results at 8:30 are going to be grim,” one Yes on G person told me.
I’ll keep you posted.
