There’s so much to think about Tuesday night.
My Politico nightly email newsletter, by Charlie Mahtesian, puts it in the bleakest terms possible:
It’s time to talk about it out loud: This year’s election is going to be a train wreck. Not just Election Day, but the weeks and perhaps even months to come.
For starters, it might not be clear who controls the House for days, or longer. In the Senate, it could be weeks. In fact, if the polling averages are correct , we might not know who controls the Senate until after a potential early December runoff in Georgia.
But that’s the least of the trouble ahead. All the elements of a perfect storm are present: a rise in threats against election administrators and poll workers; outdated and overstrained election infrastructure; a brain drain of officials experienced with the complexities of administering elections; external cyber threats; and an abundance of close races that could extend long past Election Day as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted, recounted and litigated.
President Biden is not at all over the top when he says that American democracy is at stake in the midterms. The guy has been pretty cautious for most of his political life. He was at best a centrist Democrat in the Senate, someone who tried to “respect” that institution even as it became more and more clear that it was an anti-democratic horror show.
But this is now very real.
If the Republicans control the House, the entire agenda will be about destroying the Biden presidency, just as the Republicans tried to destroy the Obama presidency. It’s not about governing, it’s about winning.
We may not know all the results on Election Night. In the key Senate race in Georgia, it’s likely that neither major candidate will get 50 percent plus one (there’s a libertarian in the race), triggering a December runoff.
I’m worried that the huge rainstorm that is headed for the West Coast will dampen voter turnout. Only about 25 percent of San Francisco voters have turned in their ballots.
So here’s what I am going to look for on Election Night:
Pennsylvania and Georgia are clearly national tipping points. But so, in an odd way, is the race for governor of New York.
New York is a Big Blue state, almost as much as California. But a Trump-backed Republican candidate whose platform is essentially more cops and fracking the western side of the state is within a few points in the polls.
If Lee Zeldin wins that race, the Democratic failure will be profound and dramatic. If Gov. Kathy Hochul can hold on, it will indicate that the Republicans tactics of crime and fear have limited, if powerful, impact.
Mostly, I will be watching California and San Francisco. And here are the things that will matter:
Proposition 1 is a Constitutional amendment that will enshrine reproductive rights as a fundamental right in California. It’s going to pass. If it gets more than 60 percent of the vote, that will send a national signal; if the number is lower, the message won’t be a strong.
If Props. 26 and 27 both go down, which is entirely possible, it will suggest that maybe the best way to address a complicated issue like sports gambling isn’t to have two different sides put up $300 million each to attack the other’s approach.not
If Prop. 30 loses, it will show that Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is the only visible opponent and has made TV ads against it, still has a lot of political credibility, even when he is undermining his own climate agenda in the name of trying not to offend the very rich people whose support he needs to run for president.
In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed isn’t on the ballot, but her candidates are. In Districts 4 and 6, the mayor and her agenda are very much on the line: If Gordon Mar beats Joel Engardio, and Honey Mahogany ousts Sup. Matt Dorsey, it will indicate that Breed still has little in the way of coattails and not a lot of credibility.
If Engardio and Dorsey win, it will shift the balance of power on the Board of Supes, giving the mayor the ability to veto legislation without worrying much about an override.
Then there’s a question of taxes.
Everyone who has seen any polling knows that the voters are unhappy, and a clear majority think the city is on the wrong track. Breed’s allies have been playing on that narrative with ads that say the city is so badly mismanaged that we shouldn’t put up any more money for local programs and services.
The fir big test will be Prop. L, which pretty much everyone at City Hall agrees is not only a good idea but necessary for the future of Muni (and that means for the future of the city). But it needs a two-thirds vote, and that’s always tough: At least 20 or 25 percent of the voters are against all taxes. So a large majority of everyone else has to vote Yes.
Then we have Prop. O, to save City College, and Prop. M, the tax on vacant apartments. Both just need 50 percent.
Early results should be in by 8:45. We will be analyzing the results as they come in.
