Saw a very interesting Tweet this morning from an unlikely source: Conor Johnston, who is a former aide, close advisor and strong political supporter of Mayor London Breed endorsed (sort of) Sup. Aaron Peskin:
This is what the war between the billionaire-backed candidates has created—and it could have a huge impact for the Peskin campaign.
Breed’s folks and Lurie’s folks are using social media and last-minute pushes to focus voters on the $108,179 fine that Mark Farrell has agreed to pay for violating local ethics laws. Farrell is fighting back with a letter calling the problem an “accounting error.”
But the fact is, this is a settlement agreement—which means he admits his campaign, and the Yes on D campaign (which can raise unlimited money) improperly shared staff and expenses.
Farrell is running TV ads attacking Lurie, calling him a trust-fund baby who has never done anything on his own.
Breed is going after both of them.
And then there’s Peskin.
The latest data shows a lot of Farrell voters (that is, D2 and D7) have already voted. The numbers as of today:
D1: 36.83
D2: 39.96
D3: 35.23
D4: 35.39
D5: 34.37
D6: 33.62
D7: 39.28
D8: 42.71
D9: 35.85
D10: 28.30
D11: 32.10
So the latest news might not impact them. But more than half the votes have still not been cast.
Farrell’s problems help Lurie, who the polls show will get more of his second-place votes (and since it appears Farrell is not going to be in the top two, that will be a huge factor).
That attack ads on Lurie may bring his numbers down, which will help Breed and Peskin.
And if Peskin makes it into the top two with anyone other than Breed, and Conor Johnston is right … it will be an interesting night and an interesting next few days as the votes are counted.
Full disclosure: Both of my kids work on the Peskin for Mayor campaign.
