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Home Featured What the new mayor’s race poll really shows

What the new mayor’s race poll really shows

Leno comes out ahead -- but with ranked-choice voting, the real story is whether London Breed can run as the candidate of Ed Lee's legacy

Mark Leno is still ahead

The first poll on the 2018 mayor’s race offers some surprises – and a lot of information that is really not surprising.

I’ve obtained a copy of the full poll, by Public Policy Polling. I will start with a caveat: In the days when nobody uses landlines, and people with mobile phones are impatient with random numbers calling them and asking poll questions, all polling data is a bit suspect.

Mark Leno comes out well ahead in the first major poll on the mayor’s race

This particular poll skews a bit conservative: Of the 627 San Francisco voters who participated, 52 percent were homeowners and only 48 percent renters. Fifty percent were white, 22 percent Asian, 12 percent Latino and eight percent African American. Almost 70 percent were older than 45. A full 70 percent had a favorable opinion about Gov. Jerry Brown.

The gender mix was 53 percent women.

But well-designed polls are not radically wrong, and they offer a glimpse at how the voters view people who are running, or might be running, for mayor.

In an off-year primary election, the population in this poll may be a fair representation of who will go to the polls.

It’s no surprise at all when voters were asked who they would support for mayor today, Mark Leno is at the top of the list. Nor is it a surprise that he has, by far, the highest positive and the lowest negative ratings. Leno has been in Sacramento for 14 years; he’s done a lot of great legislation, and spent a lot of time making political connections in town. But he hasn’t had to be a part of the local fray on all the divisive issues like tech taxes, the Google buses, housing policy, and the like. He has 59 percent favorables, and only 24 percent unfavorable. Close behind him is City Attorney Dennis Herrera, who has taken on some critical legal cases -– but also hasn’t had to take a position on the tough local issues. He’s at 49-21 positive-negative.

David Chiu, who is now in Sacramento, where these days there’s so little news media attention that nobody knows what he’s doing, still has some strong negatives: he’s at 45 positive, 29 negative.

Breed polls high as a replacement for Lee; she’s at 20 percent, and Leno’s at 26 percent. But her negatives are much higher – she’s at 43-29. Jane Kim, who polls at only 5 percent, is at 40-32.

With a plus-or-minue four percent margin, a lot of those numbers are a wash.

When you look at ranked-choice voting, Leno comes out even further ahead: Since 19 percent of the voters said they would list him as their second choice, he’s at 45 percent for top two. Breed is at 31 percent. Dennis Herrera is at 21, and David Chiu is at 22. That’s only first and second choices, and the voters get three.

Among the very clear messages of this poll: A clear majority of the voters – 60 percent – think Breed should not be both acting mayor and board president for the next five months. It there’s going to be an interim mayor, aside from Willie Brown (who, at 84, has made it clear he has no interest) the clear favorite is Tom Ammiano. Ammiano’s at 19 percent, followed by Art Agnos at 13. Nobody else is close. That’s not a surprise, either — Ammiano is one of the most popular politicians in the city, and if he entered the mayor’s race, he would have strong poll support.

The poll is not good news for Jane Kim. I’m a bit surprised at how low her numbers are – but on the other hand, much of her support in the state Senate race was from younger voters, who are underrepresented in this poll. She also suffered from a vicious, brutal barrage of attacks on her, funded by the tech industry, when she ran for state Senate against Scott Wiener.

But she’s had the support of Bernie Sanders, and will have his substantial base of committed organizers, and is framing her campaign as a push for economic justice. If she can convince the voters that she is the person most likely to change the direction of local policy, she has a greater shot than the numbers today suggest.

Now let’s look at political reality as it’s going to play out in the next few months.

The poll doesn’t include (at least from what I have seen) a key question: Do you think the city is going in the right or the wrong direction? I think it’s pretty clear that something like 70 percent of the voters would say: Wrong direction.

And as the campaign progresses, it will become clear that Breed is the candidate of the folks who have been running this city for the past, oh, 25 years. The big money behind Ed Lee (including Ron Conway) has come together to support Breed. She will have the tech-real-estate axis. She already has Willie Brown. The message that the campaigns will put out is simple: If you like the way Ed Lee ran the city, you will like the way London Breed runs it.

If Chiu gets in the race, he will be in the same position: He was an ally of Lee and his supporters, and can’t possibly run as a candidate of change.

I think, while there are fond memories of the mayor as a person, most people today don’t like the way Ed Lee ran the city. 

The left in the city may be divided: I don’t know where the Milk Club, the Sierra Club, the Tenants Union, the new Progressive Alliance, SEIU Local 1021, the Hotel Workers Union, and others will come down on the question of Leno-Kim-Herrera. But I think it’s pretty clear that none of them will support Breed.

So if Leno, Kim, and Herrera don’t attack each other (and why would they?), the poll results show that Breed is in serious trouble. There won’t be a lot of Leno, Kim, or Herrera voters who pick Breed as a second choice.

Put that up against what will be pretty much unlimited money for Breed, including, I would guess, a massive independent expenditure effort by the tech lords, and you get some fascinating possibilities.

The first battle comes this week, when the supes decide whether to keep her in the untenable position of being both board president and acting mayor – for five months. Four supes have endorsed Leno. Kim is running. One more vote and the city could have a mayor who isn’t London Breed as the race sprints into a crazy, mad rush.

86 COMMENTS

  1. The Cold War is over, Communism is pretty much dead. China is capitalist with a dictatorship (Just like the U.S. has been since Jan. 20, 2017, North Korea is more of an absolute monarchy (Seriously, think about it), and Cuba is barely holding itself together (though they do have some beautiful old American cars). I haven’t kept up with Venezuela, but they were trying to be truly Marxist for a while. Nobody takes Marxism seriously. It is a completely flawed system that has never been a serious threat. In fact, true Marxism has never really existed. It can’t. It is internally flawed, and is doomed to self destruct.

  2. Yeah, I remember now. That was the year we got stuck with Gavin “Empty Suit” Newsom. I had been in San Francisco only a short time, and briefly worked on Jim Reid’s campaign. I liked his “small house” idea, which is finally being seriously considered, but quit when I realized what a total kook he was. I voted for Gonzalez, and became a devoted “Anyone But Newsom” voter.

  3. Matt was not even a one-issue candidate. His entire Mayoral campaign consisted of “I’m not Gavin Newsom.” Not that anyone would be confused. Newsom bathed on a regular basis. Matt had quite the air about him. If he was the anti-Newsom candidate, did he have any actual ideas or plans or even just some basic points discussing what he proposed be done? Newsom had put out policy papers; a quick skim and some notes in the margins of each would be the Idiot’s Guide to a Barely Motivated Anti-Newsom Campaign with a modicum of constructive effort and thought. Matt’s a smart guy, people told me.

    As a constituent of his, I spoke with him before he became Board President. I asked if he had a legislative agenda for the rest of his term. I was curious to see if there was anything I could get behind supporting. Silence. Awkward. Do you have a particular piece of legislation you want to enact? Silence. [this is a supposed genius, according to so many people!] Is there a general area you’d like to do something in? I’m a constituent, and I’d love to find some common ground with my Supervisor. Nada.

    The truth is that all of those things that “Matt gave us” didn’t really come from Matt. Matt wasn’t the primary author of them, nor was he even a co-sponsor. He did sign off on them, but nearly always after someone else had done the work of developing it and shepherding it through the hard work of legislating – working with stakeholders, endless meetings, getting it into and through committee and then calendared before the full board. Then when it was clear there was support for it, Matt would add his name to the bill.

    I will give him credit where credit is due. He was the author of the law that legislated that San Franciscans are ‘pet guardians,’ not the archaic ‘pet owners.’ Perhaps this had a huge impact upon something, somewhere, deep inside City Hall, but I think it sums up Matt’s contributions to civic life perfectly. What a waste. He was a ‘smart guy’ but he accomplished nothing of value. That Nader sought him as a running mate was as fitting for Nader’s impotency as it was damning the Green Party to irrelevance.

    Matt was only good at insisting that he, Matt, was somehow worthy of something; the closest he ever came to articulating what that something was was to point at Newsom and scream that he, Matt was not Gavin Newsom. Congrats Matt, you did good on that one.

  4. In this city? Little of this will happen no matter who gets selected by RCV. Moreover, this has nothing to do with Trump, and the reason we have him is 100% because of Hillary Clinton.

  5. I think the citizens of SF are more open minded than this comment.

    don’t be so sure. the city hall power structure and characterizations of the candidates is built upon identity and affiliation, is it not?

  6. I am also skeptical because a lot Chinese voters are conservative and Kim is a Marxist. Being Asian will get her some of the vote for those who don’t pay much attention. In general, even if you can carry your own group you must also appeal to larger audience. In a Citywide election the more conservative homeowners and older folks tend to have greater impact, but that is more fiscal than philosophical. Integrity and honesty also counts. I know people who will vote for someone with good character even if they don’t agree with their politics.

  7. We will soon find out who the CTA is supporting, and subsequently if Kim carries the Chinese vote. I’m certainly skeptical.

    You can vote for your own race if you like Don.

  8. The implicit bias thing is mostly BS. When it comes to voting there is nothing implicit about it; It is a fully conscious (not subconscious) decision. People to tend to favor their own group as most studies show.

    I recall many years ago asking someone’s Irish immigrant grandmother who she was voting for and why. She said she votes for whoever has a last name starting with an “O.”

  9. I agree. The SFPD de-escalation training is a fine idea, but something they’re already doing. I guess Weiss hasn’t heard about Google. Perhaps if she had she would have Googled the term “Camp Agnos” before getting behind point #4 there.

  10. It’s long past due to pull the plug on RCV. Given that Breed has the moderate side of the field all to herself, and votes will be split among three or four progressives, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Breed win and for progressives to rediscover the virtues of runoffs where their votes don’t evaporate into the “exhausted ballot” black hole with each subsequent RCV round.

    Progressives were at their peak on the Board of Supervisors after the 2000 election, when the more progressive candidate won seven out of nine of the supposedly hated runoffs. The other two districts that year were won in the first round, one by a moderate (Newsom), one by a progressive (Ammiano).

    But memories are short sometimes.

  11. @donsebastopol:disqus – Thanks for being the arbiter on that one. I thought that calling someone a Stanford “Princess” involved sexism, but as the final word on the matter you have corrected me.

    Thank you SO much for mansplaining.!

  12. Implicit bias is why it is important to be mindful of how we speak. To quote Robert Anton Wilson, “What the thinker thinks, the prover will prove.”

  13. Voters can see she is Asian which may be a benefit. Princess is a comment on privilege and class and elites, not gender.

  14. Benny B to Tony: “it is not difficult to know that Jane is Korean American, not Chinese
    American. Playing dumb is either racist or stupid. Pick one or both.”

    I suppose anytime anyone identifies or misidentifies anyone by race they are racist? By that definition racist is a meaningless term. Seeing a racist behind every tree may itself be racist. I don’t think I ever met anyone of any race that was not racist to some degree.

    What should I apologize for?

  15. OK. He was in the midst of citing the shortcomings/drawbacks of candidates and for Kim he led with “Ms. Kim is of Korean heritage”. And in your mind that is what voters need to be reminded of. Because they probably aren’t aware.

    And I suppose that he didn’t call her a “princess”??? Was I just seeing that or did you defend someone making sexist comments???

    Where did I correct his grammar? I did point out that he is obviously cutting and pasting his comments. Sorry to confuse you.

  16. The Mayor’s race is not a personality competition. That is how we got Trump and discord in Washington. We need a strong competent leader who is trusted and capable of doing the job. Some government experience and some knowledge of how the machine runs, along with good ideas of how to fix the major problems this city is dealing with today should take precedent as we elected a Mayor. Good ideas need followup. Determine who has the best ideas and who is most likely and capable of uniting the city to get the work done.

    It is not enough to write and pass legislation. We need to re-energize a divided public that is widely divided over how to fix the system, and we need some decisive actions to fix the broken enforcement system that relies heavily on public trust. Right now there is no enforcement because the public does not understand the importance of their role in the system they don’t trust. Evidence of enforcement shortcomings by a lot of departments are surfacing. One major story that deserves some attention for its detailed explanation of how enforcement of Planning and Building Departments system fails us

  17. I like Matt. Sometimes he does truly bizarre things, like trying to eviscerate pensions for city workers a few years ago, along with Jeff Adachi. That will always remain a black mark on his record. Overall, though, I’d take him over any of the current crop. Leno and Kim are opportunistic careerists. Matt isn’t always right, but at least he’s not a careerist. The current crop is either already in the pockets of tech barons and developers, or will sell you out in heartbeat at the earliest opportunity.

  18. Naomi is a Willie Brown high ranking team member,

    She’s a really smart and cool lady and she and her hubby, Harlan Kelly who runs the SFPUC (1st job in City government I believe was as Willie Brown’s, ‘City Engineer’).

    So, I like the Kellys but they are Machine politicians who ultimately answer to Willie Brown.

    Why not go with their own Board Clerk, Angela Calvillo?

    She will make a smooth transition because she’s watched every piece of legislation that has gone through that board for the past quarter century.

    Or, Peg Stevenson who specifically runs City and County numbers for Ben Rosenfeld’s Controller’s Office.

    Or, perhaps Hillary could help us out?

    Go Jimmy Ggggggggg!

    h.

  19. Tom ran in 2003 and finished 4th,

    He has an amazing record and let’s see you talk him into the race by 5pm Tuesday. He’s still gotta fill out buncha paperwork and get few dozen nominating signatures of registered voters.

    Did we really get Garoppolo because Brady was feuding with Belichek? Less than year before Niners got Jimmy G. from New England the Patriots were asking 2 first round choices to begin with. Now, we get him for 1 second round pick?

  20. Greg,

    I agree and also wish there were a Progressive on board. After all, this would be their best chance and it’s for 9 1/2 years! Brought it up to Adachi outside the Zarate sentencing and he suggested I run and I noted that I actually did pay the 5k and run in 2007. I endorsed Ahimsa Sumchai and ran debates in front of City Hall a dozen fridays in a row after work.

    I think Gonzalez could win this one going away.

    He’s 52 and as multi-talented as anyone you’ll meet.

    His art shows sell out and he just won the biggest trial in the country (Zarate) this year. He was a candidate for VP of USA as a Nader running mate.

    He gave us the highest minimum wage in the country.

    He made supervisors a full-time job and gave them 40% of the Mayor’s major appointment powers.

    He shut chain stores out of his district (Haight) and was negotiating terms with a Tidal Power company (Hydro-Venturi).

    Ammiano could win too as could Art Agnos.

    If the field remains the same after work Tuesday the 9th, I’ll be looking for an Alioto button the next day.

    h.
    Go Matt!

  21. Campers,

    Just posted this to a Sabatini piece in Ex. …

    Really? What planet are you from?

    •Reply•Share ›
    Avatar
    h. brown • 17 minutes ago
    Breed is Farm System product of Brown/Burton Machine,

    There are many many of them. Beginning with Willie Brown himself who was recruited by buddy John Burton for Brother Phil’s apparatus. Phil was a great guy who gave us the Golden Gate National Recreation Area. John wasn’t so bad til he started robbing Indians.

    Willie was always a crook.

    Great recruiter tho.

    One of his old girlfriends is a U.S. Senator now and being mentioned as a potential presidential candidate.

    Here’s way process worked with London Breed.

    Willie appointed her to a ‘Bond Oversight Committee’.

    After you vote for all of these billions in debt Willie and his machine make certain the money goes to the developers and contractors upon whose many payrolls and boards they sit upon.

    She did good there. By Willie’s standards.

    So, he promoted her to the Redevelopment Commission (drummed out of business by Jerry Brown in his third term for being so crooked),

    When Fog City’s founder, Luke Thomas asked her about these ties outside Amos Brown’s church when she was running for D-5 supe she exploded.

    “Willie Brown doesn’t wipe my AXX!!”

    Well, OK, she didn’t say AXX.

    Dianne Feinstein was so offended by the crudeness of Breed’s speech (tho not by the U.S. and Israel blowing up Palestinian children) … the Senator got so shocked that she withdrew her endorsement of Breed.

    Well, Willie can’t get em all right.

    For every Kamala there are a hundred hacks like Breed who serve their purpose until they don’t any more.

    A thought to those addicted to inside local politics or at least spend more time than is healthy following it.

    Imagine the pressure that the Willie Brown Machine has going on right now.

    Geeeez!

    The POA is scouring the records of anyone who can vote and their friends and family too.

    Got anything in the Assessor’s Office?

    The Treasurer got anything on you or your dad?

    These are all agencies run by Willie Brown recruits.

    Want a visit from a Health or Housing Inspector?

    Got a liquor license or a permit of some type?

    London Breed is the worst candidate of those declared.

    The BOS should simply skip the matter by appointing the Clerk of the Board (Angela Calvillo) to be temporary Mayor.

    Go Giants!

    h.

  22. Most of sftaxpayers comments made some sense; BTW – he didn’t attack Kim’s race or heritage – only the fact that she attended Stanford, and if he went to Cal – that comment would make sense as well.
    Feel free to offer grammatical corrections for me. I always appreciate it.

  23. I don’t see where anyone called Tony or you a racist. I do see where your comment was deemed racist.

    Tony apologized, but you doubled down. Take a hint from Tony.

  24. I agree, as the article suggests, that voter turnout will be the biggest factor in June. Bigger than identity politics. Especially since there’s no single successor to Rose Pak. Voter turnout is well correlated with money spent, so I think money will determine the outcome.

    The article predicts Breed will have the most to spend. If so, and she spends it wisely, I predict she’ll win. As to selecting an interim mayor. If Breed remains acting mayor, she will certainly be able to augment her campaign expenditures with immediate patronage to supporters.

  25. What I liked about Kopp is that he would take a strong position on something but then change his position when given facts and a good argument. Even if you disagreed with him, you had to admire his integrity and honesty.

  26. Calling people names does not contribute to the discussion.

    Tony was called a racist and stupid because he confused Korean with Chinese. If he is guilty of something then others are guilty of not being able to distinguish between the different Chinese groups.

    I am fully aware of cultural identities. I am a veteran of the war on poverty and a military veteran. We lost both wars. I was intimately involved in SF ethnic politics at the time. I enforced affirmative action goals. Every group wanted to have is own classification and be counted separately for the allocation of resources. The City collected data on something like 17 different groups. Asians in particular did not want to be all in the same group. But I recall there was a similar issue with Hispanics; Mexicans, Central Americans, Caribbean’s also wanted separate identities. The Mexicans were the establishment. Central Americans did not start arriving in any great numbers until the 60’s. But in the end all groups had to form coalitions. The Asians were the most effective. And that was one of the issues. The best organized groups politically with the most resources had the advantage at making the case for resources. Smaller less effective groups like Samoans would often get left out.

  27. Of course there is more to identify than just race. But race matters. Latterman did a statistical study. If you look at the percent of vote for Mayor maps the results speak for themselves. Ed Lee did win on the strength of the Chinese vote.

  28. You might also recall the civil rights movement from the 60’s and 70’s.

    “Different kinds of Asians…” “It was difficult to explain…” Wtf? I forgot to include patronizing in my original list.

    Asia is a big continent, Don — the cultural identities and ideologies are extremely diverse.

  29. There is much more to identity than just race, and Latterman secured his chump status in my book long ago.

  30. Venezuela is still there, I think. But Hugo Chávez is dead so maybe they have changed. As I recall all the progressives were excited when Chavez came to power; they all supported him.

  31. A common mistake. She is Asian. Which should appeal to Asian voters in general.

    I can recall in the 60’s and into the 70’s when there was division in the Asian and Chinese community; there were six difference groups of Chinese, Cantonese, Hong Kong, Northern, Mainland, etc. That does not include the the ABCs versus the FOBs. And the different kinds of Asians, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, etc. were competing for resources. But Asians did form an alliance and presented a united front to appeal for government resources competing with Hispanics and Blacks. Every group wanted a bigger piece of the pie. It was difficult to explain that there is only 100 percent.

  32. “The Mayoral results show that city politics cannot be described in
    simply ideological terms.Campaigns are won and lost by identity voting .
    . . Willie Brown did exceptionally well among African -Americans, and
    Ed Lee won on the strength of the Chinese vote.” (David Latterman
    February 2017)

    https://static1.squarespace

  33. Not all, but people tend to vote based on their group identification. That is a fact supported by many studies. Ethnic politics is alive and well in San Francisco.

    “The Mayoral results show that city politics cannot be described in simply ideological terms.Campaigns are won and lost by identity voting . . . Willie Brown did exceptionally well among African -Americans, and Ed Lee won on the strength of the Chinese vote.” (David Latterman February 2017)

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/524b503ee4b09b795faf6469/t/58acb0d5f5e231da9a819f4e/1487712478971/Latterman+-+Twenty+years+of+SF+political+changes.pdf

  34. I guess you missed my “morphed” descriptor, what happens after ‘death’.

    I wouldn’t describe China as capitalist – more like crony-capitalist, with a heavy thumb still exercised by Party cadre.

    Russia … 🙁

    I will agree that there don’t seem to be any communist economies still kicking. But, judging from what becomes of societies that tried that experiment, maybe that’s for the best.

  35. Russia is not remotely Communist. And while China claims to be Communist, they are so capitalist it hurts. Beyond that, you have North Korea (which is actually more of monarchy for all practical purposes), Cuba, which is barely able to avoid imploding, and maybe Venezuela, which is probably the closest to an actual Communist government. The simple fact is, Marxism doesn’t actually work.

  36. As best I can tell, he only ran once, and that time he forced Willie into a run-off, and that was as a WRITE-IN candidate. Pretty impressive. He has talked about running, but had not run since. He seriously considered in in 2015, but like everyone else, he backed off because Lee’s handlers pushed the idea that he was invincible. Ironically, Lee did relatively poorly against three unknowns.

  37. Yeah, “dead”? Or more likely, morphed into the two biggest gangsta states – Putin and the PRC – in the world (although there are plenty of smaller ones).

    Even with that madman in the White House, we aren’t quite as bad (yet)>

  38. I’d be curious to see what proposals they’d put forth. I’ve always admired Quentin Kopp. BTW, as an interim caretaker …

  39. Communism is all but dead. The Cold War is over. We won. Welcome to the 21st Century. And quite frankly, I haven’t seen any of late that are not owned by Conway.

  40. I like the bias in the story. On Breed: “her negatives are much higher ” (43-29%), while Kim earns a non-descript mention of 40-32%. Damn girl, thats almost higher than Hillary!

  41. Sorry to have to blunt, but you aren’t cut out for the spokesperson role.

    The fact that Breed once ran a small non profit doesn’t mean that she can never manage anything bigger.

    Attacking Kim’s race and heritage won’t work either. Nor does listing her educational achievements. The “princess” term is sexist.

    When you pasted in your comment you should have removed the line-break in between “corrupt” and “Burton/Brown”. Looks awful.

    I hear that Walmart is hiring. You might want to apply.

  42. Ms. Breed claims as her experience to have run a nonprofit with less than $50,000 in annual revenues and now she wants to run a $10 BILLION budget. She doesn’t have the background.
    Ms. Kim is of Korean heritage, daughter of lawyers and a Stanford princess. At least Leno has run a business and worked intelligently in Sacramento. His big drawback is being part of the corrupt
    Burton/Brown machine, but San Francisco is much like the old Soviet Union–one party, very corrupt and incompetent and unwilling to change.

  43. How do you know that I would not also be an excellent candidate?…

    I will allow you the pleasure of doing your research into her organizing and leadership background, but feel it important to include a couple of other points.

    She is not a complete newcomer. She ran against Ed Lee last go round and her 80,000 – 90,000 votes was part of the reason he barely got 51%.

    I think that there is great value in looking at candidates who have worked throughout the city on various committees, commissions and such as they bring a particular level of experience and insight while not having the “taint” of being a part of the machine.

    She values a collaborative approach to governing that I appreciate, and having lived through the tail end of Feinstein, Agnos, Jordan, Brown, Newsom, Lee and now and Breed I am at least willing to listen to what people actually want to do for the people of SF and not just the moneyed interests.

    Lastly, whether you feel she has a chance or not, publication such as this should be fulling their responsibility of being more inclusive and presenting the full spectrum of candidates to the readers.

    http://www.smartvoter.org/2015/11/03/ca/sf/vote/weiss_a/bio.html

  44. RCV is a highly flawed concept.

    If your first choice is eliminated you DON’T automatically get your second choice. If your second choice has already been eliminated in an earlier ’round’ your preference never gets recognized. It’s potentially a big difference. The concept that someone gets eliminated because they are temporarily in last place is a necessary evil to make RCV “work”.

    And someone said that it saves money? Is this the place where we want to save a few bucks? When we are selecting the person to run a $9 billion budget? Totally foolish.

  45. For God’s sake, we have all witnessed the ever-growing homeless problem, the escalating food and housing costs, the rising violence, the dirty sidewalks, the increasing inefficiency of Muni. And you want us to talk about the merits of the same people who have been in power and allowed this to happen? And you call yourselves progressives? Are you frigging kidding me? Jane Kim is the supervisor of the Tenderloin where people are regularly knifed and shot. Yeah, I know she said she was sad over the death of Bubbles. She’s horrible. Mark Leno is horrible. These people should be ashamed to show their faces, let alone run for Mayor Criticize London Breed all you want. At least she is a native and has a history of this city, like I do. You want me to decide whether Jane Kim or Mark Leno is better. Excuse me, I have to go barf….

  46. Sounds great. How much experience does she have in organizing a massive, complex organizational structure, and how much leadership experience does she have overseeing an organization of thousands of workers. Because without that, you might as well vote for yourself.

  47. I like the Leno idea. A true progressive who the moderates can swallow. Ammiano? Not sure how this would play out. Breed? wait and see.

  48. And no mention of Amy Farah Weiss:

    On December 13th, Weiss posted her platform of priorities in the Vote 1-2-3 for Equity group with the ask that members of the group add other priorities or prioritize what’s already there. Here it is below:

    How about this for a Mayoral platform of priorities for Equity in 2018? What would you add or prioritize?

    *Creating two additional jobs out of the Mayor’s salary.
    *Public bank.
    *Vacancy tax with teeth to get more housing, storefronts, and vacant plots in use.
    *Safe Organized Spaces to address encampment and shelter/housing shortage.
    *Creating funding streams and programming to build and acquire affordable housing for our people and workers.
    *Money out of politics.
    *Equitable access and occupational opportunities for Cannabis.
    *Additional de-escalation pilot programs and training requirements for SFPD.
    *Career pathways for local high school and college graduates that heal, manage, and sustain our systems.
    *Progressive taxation.
    *Regional job to housing balance.
    *Pragmatic regulations on Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb.
    *Vote16

  49. more generalizations…all Asians will vote for Asians…all LGBTQi will vote for LGBTQi…NOT. I think the citizens of SF are more open minded than this comment…done replying to U buddy

  50. And just who do you think will be voting. Most of the “Millennials” don’t bother voting, so it is generally older voters. You just want an excuse if your choice loses.

  51. We don’t have “actual moderates” here. We have closet Republicans who are owned and manipulated by Ron Conway.

  52. It saves money, and empowers less well funded candidates. In the last mayoral election, Ed Lee was did not do nearly as well as it was thought he would. The results showed that a decent, and well known, candidate (like Tom Ammianno) might well have won. No wonder you fear it.

  53. This “silly voting system” allows you to list your top three choices in order. It’s not that complicated.

  54. Tim, what we need are a series of really good and hard core(real questions) debates ASAP. Flush all of these issues out in front of the cameras and the city and let us decide!

  55. I wish there was an adult in this race. you know…someone actually worth supporting

    I also wish there were adults VOTING in this race but you can’t have everything, sweetie

  56. it is not difficult to know that Jane is Korean American, not Chinese American. Playing dumb is either racist or stupid. Pick one or both.

  57. the left will have a useless fight over who is more pure. they dont even understand this silly voting system they created, which ironically has left them out in the cold politically since. and you wonder why these geniuses fail?

  58. This article leaves out one crucial conclusion at the end – with 5 Leno/Kim-supporting votes certainly against her and unable to vote for herself per the Charter, there is no way Breed will be chosen as the “Interim” Mayor by the Supervisors. a 5-5 vote can’t do it. nor would she want to risk giving up her Supervisor seat for this Interim position – because if she lost the Mayor’s race too then her City Hall career would be finished. and anyway, the campaign “optics” of her trying to grandstand by becoming official Interim Mayor are bad. for all these reasons it is apparent that is just not going to happen.

    but of course a Supervisors stalemate that results in no Interim Mayor will leave Breed as Acting Mayor indefinitely, potentially until the June election. the “optics” of this scenario are very risky. yes, she can benefit from the prominence of being mayoral, ribbon cuttings, proclamations, taking credit for any good news. but she could also be blamed for anything that goes seriously wrong “on her watch” in these months too – another egregious police shooting of an unarmed civilian for example. and as the de facto incumbent it would be harder for her to run as a “candidate of change” – which is what voters are certainly looking for – instead of being branded by her rivals as “more of the same.”

    add this all up, i see a consensus Interim Mayor from the “moderate” side being voted in 11-0: the Willie Brown-mentored and Ed Lee protege current City Administrator, Naomi Kelly, an African American woman too. That would leave Breed President of the Board, able to manipulate legislative issues and with a close ally in the Mayor’s Office, but free to run for Mayor “optically” as a proponent of change.

  59. I wish there were an actual moderate or conservative in this race: someone actually worth supporting.

  60. I wish there was an actual progressive in this race. You know… someone actually worth supporting.

  61. Leno. The other candidates are only strong in their neighborhoods, especially Kim (although being Chinese is a big advantage). Leno has the advantage of being part of the other big political group (LBGT) in the city, and has greater ability to bring in moderate voters, because he was elected by a larger cross section of the city. It helps that has been out of town (and out of the fray), and will have greater name recognition.. Not so much the other candidates.

  62. Nice analysis.

    The poll, say Matier & Ross, was commissioned by Jim Stearns for “a progressive organization that is considering putting an unrelated measure on the ballot.” I wonder who that is.

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